Fair or Foul?

Kyle Eliason — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 05:33:19 -0400

Nate Silver, the baseball statistician behind the PECOTA projection system, is now trying his hand at projecting electoral votes instead of on-base percentages. PECOTA is a very fun and informative tool, so I'm hoping his new site FiveThirtyEight is as interesting as electoral politics can get. I still prefer real hardball to the figurative.

WN 21

Randall McElroy iii — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 15:10:51 -0400

Via Archinect, the news that Walter Netsch is dead. Though arguably his most famous work involves collaboration with two institutions I oppose, religion and the state, it is really stunning.

Kherington Payne

Jonathan Wilde — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 22:13:34 -0400

Speaking of SYTYCD, one of this year's contestants is Kherington Payne, whose audition video follows.

One Republic's "Stop and Stare" had been an unremarkable mellow song to me. Kherington's audition changed it into an optimistic ballad. As the judges state, her expressions dominate the stage when she dances. In the clash between the song lyrics and her charisma, her charisma wins.

Most popular dancing that I see in clubs and so forth is rhythmic dancing. The movements coincide with the beat. It's refreshing to see dancing that doesn't rely on the rhythm of the song. Her movements are easy and elegant, her smile captivating.

Popping

Jonathan Wilde — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 01:47:55 -0400

A recent episode of So You Think You Can Dance reminded me of the relatively unknown style of dance known as "popping". Long before Youtube, a clip of a talent show circulated around the internet the old fashioned way and made David Elsewhere a legend (he's the guy in orange).

You might remember this Mitsubishi Eclipse commercial with a girl in the passenger seat popping to the song "Days Go By" by Dirty Vegas.

On one of this season's audition shows for SYTYCD, Robert Muraine entranced the judges with his popping.

The crowd reaction in the clips is interesting. The audience at the Kollaboration talent show went crazy when David Elsewhere got into his routine. Similarly, the judges on SYTYCD went absolutely insane from Muraine's routine. Even these judges who've seen all different types of dancing before were shocked at this combination of rhythm, contortion, self-aggrandizing humor, and what can only be described as "special effects". It takes people by surprise.

Commercials of Note

Jonathan Wilde — Wed, 21 May 2008 21:45:08 -0400

A few ads have caught my eye recently. As everyone knows, iTunes makes great commercials. I often find new music in them. Here's one:

Another uses Coldplay's new single, Viva La Vida.

Speaking of Coldplay, the trailer for Gears of War uses "Mad World" in a perfect melding of song and video.

Extended version here.

Distraction

Jonathan Wilde — Wed, 14 May 2008 19:58:00 -0400

From last night's Spurs-Hornets game:

For those who might not get it, Eva Longoria is Tony Parker's wife.

The Chicken or the Egg

Kyle Eliason — Tue, 13 May 2008 03:31:20 -0400

Baseball Prospectus:

Vernon Wells (45 DXL)
The Jays keep taking hits in what was seen as a make-or-break season for this version of J.P. Ricciardi's plan. Instead, they're six games back and in last place, so losing Vernon Wells until the All-Star break isn't going to help them make up ground on the Yankees in the battle for fourth. Wells fractured a bone in his wrist, believed to be the scaphoid fx (not a hamate), on a diving catch. Wrist injuries tend to sap power and bat control, two things that Wells can't afford to lose. The Jays will shift Alex Rios over to center field in the interim, using newly-acquired Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson in right field. Wells' return should come without significant difficulty; with new technology, seeing him at the end of June isn't out of the question.

Yahoo! Sports:

May 10: Wells will miss 6-8 weeks after breaking a bone in his left wrist on Friday, the Toronto Star reports.

Recommendation: Alex Rios will likely slide over to center field, while the newly-acquired Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson should see more playing time in right. Joe Inglett was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to replace Wells on the roster.

Emphasis mine. I remembered the Yahoo! version while I was reading Baseball Prospectus tonight because I thought it was poorly phrased. If you're not an obsessed baseball fan like I am, you wouldn't know if just Mench or Mench and Wilkerson was/were newly-acquired. Could be coincidence, but the same confusing, hyphenated use of newly-aquired drums up suspicion.

What would be the ideal price?

Kyle Eliason — Sat, 03 May 2008 00:00:43 -0400

Everywhere I turn on the net—blogs, message boards, etc—sports fans are decrying increases in ticket prices and slamming franchises and leagues and owners because "real fans" can no longer afford to attend sporting events in person. Meanwhile, our population has grown, modern transportation continues to make it possible for fans to travel greater distances to attend events, and television, radio and their internet counterparts have provided sports fans with new methods of following their favorite sports from around the globe (depending on your level of interest in sports and your views on intellectual property, myp2p may be your favorite site on the internet). So while the number of sports teams and leagues have grown, that pace has nowhere near matched the increase in demand for tickets generated by the aforementioned factors.

I have no doubt that many passionate and dedicated fans are being priced out of attending as many games as they would like to, but one question that I never see asked is how their lot would be different if tickets were price controlled (and for the record we're now operating under the assumption that only lower-to-middle class fans can be "real fans").

Starting with an extreme example, if tickets were free, they would have to be rationed by some means other than price. Perhaps everyone that wanted to attend sporting events for a particular team or league would put their name on a waiting list and once they received their ration of tickets they would move to the bottom of the queue. But here, "real fans" probably wouldn't get to attend as many games as they would if there were a charge for tickets, because casual fans, having to invest nothing more than their time, would consume more tickets. Invariably, a black market of ticket scalping would emerge and the "real fans" would go right back to paying for tickets, since "real fans" would undoubtedly value the tickets more than other people.

There seems to be a pervasive assumption that there would be no increased competition for cheaper tickets. I'm preaching to the choir here, but I challenge anyone who self-identifies as a "real fan" to name me the price at which they, personally, could afford to attend more matches and would also be able to secure tickets against the increased demand that would come hand in hand with those lower prices. It is no doubt out there, but it is going to be hard for the average fan to identify and will vary from fan to fan depending on their disposable income, travel costs, and a variety of other factors.

Going further, let's speculate about a situation similar to rent control in New York City. What about cheap season tickets that could be renewed, indefinitely, at their original purchase price, even if adjusted for inflation. The decriers seem to be operating under some sports variant of Kip's Law, in that they assume they'd be the lucky few with season tickets priced way below demand that would rarely, if ever, be relinquished. Heaven help you if you fall in love with a franchise after all the renewable season tickets have been rationed by a means other than market price.

A good portion of this backlash is directed at the number of seats sold to companies, instead of directly to individuals. Soccer fans often raise this complaint with regards to the difference in crowds between professional club and national team competitions. The spectacle of the World Cup draws in a greater number of casual fans, aided by the number of tickets given out by large companies, which leads to a less boisterous crowd. What I find humorous is, if operating under the viewpoint of "real fans", the act of tickets being given out by corporations to casual fans actually demonstrates the problem caused by removing market forces from the pricing of tickets—with less of a sacrifice required to win tickets in competition with other fans, be they casual or "real", the casual fans end up with a greater share of the available tickets. And none of this touches on if self-identified "real fans" have more of a right to tickets than the casual fan.

I remember the Society of American Baseball Research conference I attended in the summer of 2005. One panel included members of the Toronto Blue Jays front office and they were kind enough to field questions from obsessed baseball fans on why they are bastardizing the game (namely the J-Force dance troop that performs on top of dugouts in between innings, something that could get those well meaning dancers shot at Fenway, Busch, or Yankee Stadium). One Jays official said that, unfortunately for "real fans", the focus is at the margins. The hardcore baseball fans show up for Blue Jays games because the team plays in the best league on Earth and the quality of play is the highest around. The Jays official said this group of "real fans" probably account for around 15,000 seats a game. The remaining seats get filled by bandwagon jumpers when the team is doing well and casual fans drawn in by promotions and other entertainment like the abomination against God that is the J-Force.

All of this could be chalked up to the evil influence of money in sports, but like anything in life there are tradeoffs. Without money, teams and leagues wouldn't attract the caliber of athletes they do. They'd leave for other teams, leagues or sports, and eventually sports altogether. That horrible corrupting money is the reason we now enjoy levels of competition unrivaled in history.

I recently watched a DVD of the original BBC broadcast of the 1961 FA Cup game won by Tottenham Hotspur, a team that won "the Double" that season (where a club soccer team wins both its league title and highest tournament cup). Compare that to the DVDs I own of today's Tottenham Hotspur beating Arsenal 5-1 in the decisive leg of the Carling Cup semifinal, and their following 2-1 victory over Chelsea in the final at Wembley. Tottenham are a mid-table Premier League side this season, and today's Carling Cup is considered the lowest of five potential trophies available to Premiere League clubs. Nonetheless, the 2008 Spurs would completely and utterly obliterate their 1961 counterparts, who were the finest club England had to offer in that day. This massive improvement in play is a result of all the money that has followed all the interest the sport has attracted. The difference in the speed of play between the two championship matches I own on DVD, separated by less than 50 years, is staggering.

As often happens with naive populist grumbling, the faults of the market are derided while at the same time the benefits are taken completely for granted. The fact that, despite all this complaining, the Premiership (as an example) is growing in popularity the world over speaks to the fact that the quality of competition is the absolute bottom line when it comes to our enjoyment of sports. Far and wide, there will be cries of outrage as the top leagues pull top players out of their native countries as these players go in search of more money and greater competition, but I for one welcome it. With modern media, attending a match live, while often an amazing experience, isn't the primary method of following sports. Sites like myp2p are the future. The real problem going forward will be time zone differences. How can we make it so fans from the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and all parts in between can watch the same games live? In any case, I do not count myself among the ranks of the doomsayers. I think the future looks bright.

Too Beautiful To Live

Brandon Berg — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 16:26:27 -0400

I just want to put in a quick plug for the immensely entertaining TBTL, a new apolitical talk radio show which is probably Too Beautiful To Live. It airs on Seattle's 710 KIRO from 19:00-22:00 (Pacific). For those outside of Seattle or unable to listen during those hours, the show's web site offers live streaming and MP3s of the ten most recent episodes.

The show consists of host Luke Burbank, producer Jennifer Andrews (formerly of Peter Weissbach's show on KVI, for readers who were in Seattle five years ago), and engineer Sean Trattori screwing around and saying whatever happens to pop into their heads, with occasional input from guests and the "tens" (of listeners).

TBTL makes liberal use of running gags, inside jokes, and drops (i.e. sound bites, which I would conservatively estimate account for about 103% of the show's air time--sometimes they play two simultaneously), which I suspect make it very much a love-it-or-hate-it thing.

Anyway, great show. Give it a listen, and if you love it remember that I told you. If you hate it, remember that this whole Verse thing was Jonathan's idea. read more »

That Stevie Wonder is right on

Jonathan Wilde — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 15:20:51 -0500

The wonders of Japanese culture never cease to amaze me.

Thugs Watch The Wire

Jonathan Wilde — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 16:27:04 -0500

Don't read this unless you're caught up on this season's The Wire episodes.

Sudhir Venkatesh gets his hands dirty with some real-life thugs who watch The Wire.

Shine and I walked back into the apartment to watch episode 8. The rest of the crew was already assembled. Many had served up plates of catered food and were opening their fine domestic beers.

The viewing was uneventful until, “BANG!” Omar fell to his death. Kenard, the shortie from Michael’s street crew, had laid claim to the bounty.

The place went crazy. Omar is dead! Long live Omar! Kool-J threw a bag of pork rinds in the air, causing Shine to rebuke him with: “Hot sauce don’t come out of the carpets, boy!” Orlando woke from his semi-comatose state, crying, “No! No! They took my boy! First Butchie and now Omar!”

Tony-T was the most visibly shaken. “It can happen to any of us, just like that. You think you’re going out to buy some chicken and Pepsi, and the next thing, some kid wants to make a name for himself by taking you out.”

“We got to tell Flavor,” Shine said. “I know he’ll go nuts when he hears this.” Shine left the room to call Flavor on his cell phone. The rest of the Thugs began making side-bets.

“I say Michael kills Marlo,” Orlando said soberly. “That young [man] is going to take over.”

“Nope,” said Tony-T. “Avon. Avon, Avon, Avon. He’s got a deal with the Greeks, and they’ll take out Marlo. You watch: Avon is coming back! That’s my boy!”

Amidst the speculation and wagers, Shine returned. He had a fresh beer in his hand and he was shaking his head.

“Flavor’s in some real trouble now,” he said. “That boy should have laid low, and instead…”

“He went after Pootchie, didn’t he?” Kool-J yelled. (Everyone in the room evidently knew about Flavor’s troubles.) “Just say it! I’m right, ain’t I? Flavor went after Pootchie, didn’t he? I knew that son of a b—h couldn’t just hide out, keep quiet. That’s all he had to do! Jo-Jo was going to get arrested in a week — I told him that.”

Shine nodded and then explained: Flavor was so upset about the coup d’etat orchestrated by Jo-Jo that he decided to go after Jo-Jo’s girlfriend. But on the way to her place, he stopped off at a strip club, where he ran into some of Jo-Jo’s guys.

“They beat the s–t out of him, but that n—-r got away! I guess he left this trail of blood; he’s hurt pretty bad. But he’s in his car, still running.”

“I say Flavor goes after Jo-Jo,” Orlando said. “That [guy] can’t wait. Impatient m—-r f—-r.”

“No,” said Shine. “I think he’s shaken up. I think he’ll call his brother, Richie, stay at his place.”

“Hell no!” Tony-T yelped. “He’s going out like John Wayne. Guns firing.”

Stringer Bell, these guys aren't. Among the many not-believable characters in the series, Stringer Bell stood out. I always thought that someone as smart, calm, and far-thinking as him would not stay long in the Game. He'd realize that he'd have a much easier time making money by legal means with a fraction of the risk. But David Simon needed a diabolical "capitalist" genius criminal. read more »

Super Bowl Thoughts

Jonathan Wilde — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 23:37:42 -0500

* Is there an in-the-grasp rule in the NFL? Sure looked like Eli Manning was in the grasp on that crazy play at the end of the game.

* Speaking of that play, I think it will probably be replayed 30 years from now on ESPN8. It was an unbelievable play both from the QB and the WR on a drive where it counted the most.

* What's up with Belichick's short-sleeve sweatshirt? I've never seen such a thing. Don't the short sleeves defeat the whole purpose of the sweatshirt? It even had a hood.

* Best commercial was probably the pair of E*Trade commercials with the baby. The first one with the puking was all slapstick. The second one with the clown was cerebral.

* More fashion: what in the world is Keyshawn Johnson wearing on the ESPN set?

* The NFL now has two "faces of the NFL", not just one.

* WHERE'S TIKI? It's bad enough his team win the Super Bowl the year after he retired. But he went the extra mile and publicly criticized Manning and Coughlin at the beginning of the season. There are winners and there are talkers. Tiki turned out to be a talker, Manning and Coughlin winners. I think he'll have to publicly give credit to Manning and Coughlin to have any credibility remaining.

* I remember an interview with the Archie Manning sometime while Peyton was in college. They asked him about Peyton's little brother who hadn't yet started high school, and the elder Manning said something like, "Yeah, he shows promise, but I'm not going to push him into football. We'll see what happens." Archie Manning never played in a Super Bowl. Both his sons now have Super Bowl MVP trophies.

* Hey Tom Brady - chin up. Even on your worst day, it's still Christmas.

Gillespie & Welch: Right for the Most Part

Kyle Eliason — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 04:16:39 -0500

Gillespie and Welch rightly take Congress to task for their hysterics over Major League Baseball's steroid use here. A couple things stood out as misleading, though (emphasis mine):

The uncomfortable truth is that illegally obtained muscle-rebuilding treatments exist on a continuum that includes laser eye surgery, Vitamin B-12 shots and Tommy John surgery (a procedure that grafts ligaments from knees or elsewhere onto a wrecked elbow, frequently giving pitchers more velocity than they had before). Sorting out the morality and legality of self-improvement has more to do with aesthetic revulsion and moral panic than with considered science or logic.

This makes it sound as if Tommy John surgery, named for the pitcher that first underwent the procedure invented by Dr. James Andrews, increases a pitcher's velocity? Kind of, in the sense that someone with a torn ligament in their elbow can't throw very hard at all. But pitchers don't throw harder than they did prior to injuring their elbow, rehab time after the surgery is 12 to 18 months, and players usually don't regain their pre-injury velocity until their second year of pitching after the injury, if ever. Dr. Andrews should be inducted into baseball's Hall of Fame, or at least given some award by Cooperstown and a plaque in some part of the museum, because the procedure has saved numerous careers and is responsible for tens-of-thousands of innings at the major league level. It has changed baseball, but Gillespie and Welch almost make it sound as if pitchers are moving ligaments around to give some more jump to their fastballs.

Another paragraph that caught my eye (emphasis mine):

But Congress no more established a Major League Baseball commissioner than the Blackhawks, a professional hockey team founded in 1926, ever held a seventh-inning stretch. In fact, when baseball owners appointed the racist judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis the league's first commissioner after the Chicago Black Sox game-throwing scandal, Congress tried to forcibly remove him from the federal bench. When Shays's wild pitches were pointed out to him, his response was to shrug like Hall of Fame pitcher and self-admitted cheater Gaylord Perry caught with Vaseline on the mound: "I could care less."

Norman Macht, a baseball historian held in high regard by many (his new biography on Connie Mack is 700 pages long and 20-some years in the making), had a presentation at last year's SABR Convention that convincingly aruged that baseball's color barrier was a product of the owners and not the commissioner (Landis). That Landis, while not taking any active steps to do away with the color barrier, wasn't opposed to integration. He knew that none of the current crop of owners would have it, and if none of the teams were willing to integrate, a decree from the office of the commissioner wouldn't have righted the wrong. It can be argued that such a stance is still racist and that by taking such a stance Landis is a racist himself, but it isn't as clear-cut as Gillespie and Welch make it seem.

Everything Gillespie and Welch say about congress is spot on. They just make a few errors on the ballfield. Particularly interesting is the way the anti-trust exemption Major League Baseball received has actually fowled things up. The exemption was incorrectly granted on the grounds that baseball doesn't transact business across state lines. It obviously does, especially now with online merchandise shops, national network broadcast contracts, satellite radio, cable and internet broadcast packages, etc. The problem with the anti-trust case against baseball is that the individual teams aren't seperate firms colluding, but a joint venture. The teams together sell the product of on-field competition. Two competing Subway franchises would like nothing more than to drive each other out of business and being the last franchise standing, reap all the sandwich sales, but this does not apply to baseball franchises just because they compete on the field. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox don't want to drive each other out of business, as their rivalry is worth millions of dollars. They just want to win on the field, which esentially means they're both working together to give their customers the best possible product.

David Boaz' take at Cato here. read more »

The Market Prevails Again!

Kyle Eliason — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 07:11:13 -0500

Needs sound.

http://tubasinheaven.ytmnd.com/ read more »

Mystery Woman

Jonathan Wilde — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 23:27:33 -0500

Alright TV watchers, who is this woman? No googling allowed.

(Hint: The pictures are probably at least a decade old, though I'm not sure of their exact origin.)