Frontpage Feed
Community Feed
The Idea Market Feed
The 'Verse Feed
Jonathan Wilde's blog
RIP Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn...
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Sun, 2008-08-03 19:55...author of the most important book of the 20th century.
Don't you mean Fair Trade?
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Wed, 2008-07-30 22:22.Steve Sailer makes the following argument:
- Reagan instituted tariffs on Japanese cars.
- Today, most Japanese cars are made in the US by Americans.
- Thus, those tariffs were good policy.
The poverty of the argument lies in not imagining what the alternative world might look like had the tariffs not been instituted. The implication is that Americans would not be making Japanese cars on American soil[1]. And what if they didn't? Would that be a bad thing?
The same argument has been used by opponents of trade for hundreds of years. They imagine that because Americans who today make cars, in that alternative universe of no tariffs, would not be making cars, that they would have no jobs at all.
But are cars the only thing people want to buy? Do they want to buy other things? How strong is people's desire for things? A wise man once said that human wants are unlimited. I can't prove that's true, but everything I know about human nature tells me he's probably right.
Let me imagine a possible alternate universe in which those tariffs aren't instituted:
- Japanese make Japanese cars on Japanese soil because it's cheaper. This is presumably why they didn't make them in the US before the tariffs (according to Sailer's argument, anyway. See footnote.)
- Americans thus have cheaper cars to buy. Americans' standard of living is raised.
- Those Americans who in our universe make Japanese cars on American soil instead make other things that people want in the alternate universe.
If Americans don't produce item X, that is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it could be a very good thing. And it'd be a very bad thing to use tariffs to keep Americans producing X. Isn't it a good thing that a quarter of Americans aren't farmers today like they were a hundred years ago? Basic stuff.
This pattern has been the evolution and growth of all economies: inefficient production seeks out more efficient places, countries don't keep on producing the same stuff year-in-year-out, and on net, everyone benefits over the long run.
He ends with:
It's hard to say exactly why the dogma of free trade has triumphed so completely, but status striving can't be ruled out. Economists are terribly proud that Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage is both significant and not trivial, so showing that you understand has become a major status marker.
Comparative Advantage theory should have starring role in the sequel to Stuff White People Like.
How I wish the "dogma" of free trade had triumphed completely! Very few people are supporters of free trade. It's really only supported by economists and a few of us wacky libertarians. And the White People from Stuff White People Like? The ones that support free healthcare and hate multi-national corporations? More likely, they're expounding on evils of free trade while drinking their fair trade coffee at the local Starbucks.
1. Even that's debatable: how expensive is to build cars in Missouri and sell them in Missouri vs building them in Japan and shipping them to Missouri?
Individuals matter
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Sun, 2008-07-13 02:02.With all this talk of IQ...
...the best argument against any trait of a group is that individuals aren't completely beholden to group properties. Isn't that why you're reading this blog?
I went out with my friend tonight to Saint and then to the Lennox and the to 33 Lounge where I lost him. His night seemed to be going better than mine last I saw him before my cellphone went dead. He's apparently a Persian Jew, but most recently Bahai. I have no idea what that means, and I don't care. It doesn't matter, cause, he's my boy. And that's all that really matters.
Absolutes vs Differences
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-07-10 22:46.There seems to be some confusion in the monster thread below about what the consequence is of something having a genetic etiology.
Lots of things appear to have a partly genetic cause - schizophrenia, alcoholism, and even propensity to divorce, to name a few. The evidence comes from twin studies which ideally control for environment by comparing identical twins with fraternal twins. There are criticisms of twin studies but the evidence they provide is strong (IMO).
IQ is one of those things that appears to have a partly genetic cause based on twin studies. This does not mean that the Black-White IQ gap is caused by genetics. It could very well be caused by environmental factors. I've tried to say this before but it came out clunky, so I'll just quote Constant.
Let genetics be the seed, let environment be the fertilizer, and let IQ be the size of the plant. The size of the plant has a strong basis in the seed, but if blacks have smaller plants than whites, this does not mean that blacks have genetically inferior seeds than whites. It may be, instead, that blacks' seeds receive less fertilizer than whites' seeds.
To summarize: If you're skeptical of a genetic etiology for the differences in IQ between blacks and whites, you can still believe that IQ is partly genetic in origin. You can still believe that within an ethnic group, IQ is partly genetic and predicts certain life outcomes to an impressive degree. You don't have to close your mind to the entire idea of IQ.
Update: I'm Brandon Berg, and I endorse this message.
Black Hole is a racist term
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Wed, 2008-07-09 11:51.A special meeting about Dallas County traffic tickets turned tense and bizarre this afternoon.
County commissioners were discussing problems with the central collections office that is used to process traffic ticket payments and handle other paperwork normally done by the JP Courts.
Commissioner Kenneth Mayfield, who is white, said it seemed that central collections "has become a black hole" because paperwork reportedly has become lost in the office.
Commissioner John Wiley Price, who is black, interrupted him with a loud "Excuse me!" He then corrected his colleague, saying the office has become a "white hole."
That prompted Judge Thomas Jones, who is black, to demand an apology from Mayfield for his racially insensitive analogy.
Mayfield shot back that it was a figure of speech and a science term. A black hole, according to Webster's, is perhaps "the invisible remains of a collapsed star, with an intense gravitational field from which neither light nor matter can escape."
Other county officials quickly interceded to break it up and get the meeting back on track. TV news cameras were rolling, after all.
If there were cameras rolling, then this might show up on Youtube sooner or later.
No wonder I can't add McCain to my friends list
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Mon, 2008-06-30 13:20.A recent visit to my parents was revealing. They had recently switched to Vonage for their telephone needs. At the same time, their telephone's built-in answering machine crapped out. So I suggested that they simply use the free voicemail service that comes with Vonage. They complained that no, it's complicated, and made a plan to buy a new phone with answering machine.
Me: Complicated? How?
Dad: You have to dial your own number, type in a passcode, press some more buttons. It's a lot of work.
Me: How exactly do you think I check my messages? It's not a big deal, really.
Mom: Yes it is. It's a huge rigmarole.
Me: Okay, how about this: you check your stock quotes on the computer right? You can check the voicemail over the computer too. Just go to the website like this, and click here.
Dad: That's too complicated. Look at all these things appearing out of nowhere.
Me: That's just a popup Media Player. It'll disappear after the message plays.
Dad: I don't want to break the computer!
Me: You're not going to break the computer. All you have to do is click a couple of icons and you can play your messages. It's cheaper than buying a new phone.
Mom: I like to walk into the house and see a number flashing on the phone on the wall that tells me how many messages we have. Then I like to just press "play" to listen to the messages.
Me: It's not that much different than sitting down in front of the laptop and hitting "refresh"!
And on and on. They wouldn't budge. When I left, they were busy trying to figure out which phone/answering machine system to buy. Apparently, the marginal effort required to check messages online was greater than cost of a new phone.
What this reinforced to me is that old people are stubborn. It's very hard for them to adapt to new technology. I'm not sure I know anyone over 55 who knows how to type. Peck, sure; type, no.
So I'm not surprised at all that John McCain is computer illiterate.
My question is-- does it matter?
We're in a bear market
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-06-26 17:56.Relative new lows on the DJIA + not much fear/panic = bear market.
Nobody in the popular press seems to be saying it.
Supreme Court strikes down DC gun ban
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-06-26 12:27.The Supreme Court, splitting along ideological lines, today declared that the Second Amendment protects an individual's right to own guns for self-defense, striking down the District of Columbia's ban on handgun ownership as unconstitutional.
The 5 to 4 decision, written by Justice Antonin Scalia represented a monumental change in federal jurisprudence and went beyond what the Bush administration had counseled. It said that the government may impose some restrictions on gun ownership, but that the District's strictest-in-the-nation ban went too far under any interpretation.
Scalia wrote that the Constitution leaves the District a number of options for combating the problem of handgun violence, "including some measures regulating handguns."
"But the enshrinement of constitutional rights necessarily takes certain policy choices off the table," he continued. "These include the absolute prohibition of handguns held and used for self-defense in the home."
The court also held unconstitutional the requirement that shotguns and rifles be kept disassembled or unloaded or outfitted with a trigger lock. The court called it a "prohibition against rendering any lawful firearm in the home operable for the purpose of immediate self-defense."
Lot of wiggle room it seems.
Pic from Yahoo via AFP/Tim Sloan:
False Alarm
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-06-26 11:59.It's the case of the nonexistent ninja. Public schools in Barnegat were locked down briefly after someone reported seeing a ninja running through the woods behind an elementary school.
Turns out the ninja was actually a camp counselor dressed in black karate garb and carrying a plastic sword.
I just got stimulated
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Mon, 2008-06-23 18:19.$600 of others people's money finally arrived.
I'm off to save the economy. Wish me luck!
Technology and Education
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Mon, 2008-06-23 10:49.Notice how the iPod is not a way to use technology to entertain yourself. No one asks "how can I manage to get more technology into my music listening? That would be putting technology in front. Instead, it is a way to entertain yourself that happens to use technology.
From what I have seen, no educators have understood this critical distinction. No one has *started* with asking how students learn and then searched for how technology can help that process. Instead, they ask how they can stick technology into the classroom regardless of what actually goes on in the classroom. The end result is miserable utilization of these tools.
Pregnancy Pact
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-06-19 18:39.From Time:
As summer vacation begins, 17 girls at Gloucester High School are expecting babies—more than four times the number of pregnancies the 1,200-student school had last year. Some adults dismissed the statistic as a blip. Others blamed hit movies like Juno and Knocked Up for glamorizing young unwed mothers. But principal Joseph Sullivan knows at least part of the reason there's been such a spike in teen pregnancies in this Massachusetts fishing town. School officials started looking into the matter as early as October after an unusual number of girls began filing into the school clinic to find out if they were pregnant. By May, several students had returned multiple times to get pregnancy tests, and on hearing the results, "some girls seemed more upset when they weren't pregnant than when they were," Sullivan says. All it took was a few simple questions before nearly half the expecting students, none older than 16, confessed to making a pact to get pregnant and raise their babies together. Then the story got worse. "We found out one of the fathers is a 24-year-old homeless guy," the principal says, shaking his head.
Picture of a bubble
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-06-19 09:53.Inspired by the discussion below.
(Click on image to enlarge)
This is a decade chart of the stock for the company Ciena. I have a friend who worked for that company in the late 90s and was a multi-millionaire on paper for a brief period, but like many others in the tech industry, lost the value of his options in the crash. Ciena is representative of the rise and fall of many companies' stocks in that era. I could find at least a few hundred companies with similar charts.
Note the parabolic nature of the spike from late 1998 to late 2000. It's not simply a linear increase in price. Rather, the price increases faster and faster till a blowoff top results.
The price before the spike was as low as $25. After the spike, the price has been below $50 for more than five years. The lowest price after the spike was nearly $10. It's hard to say what "fair value" is, if there is such as thing at all, without looking at the fundamentals, but we can approximate it at $20 or so. That means that the bubble 'falsely' raised the price by a factor of 50. This is a dramatic illustration of just how out-of-whack prices get during bubbles. They're not simply high, but rather, shockingly, disgustingly, beyond-belief high.
Would anyone who believed during the period of the spike that the stock market was in a bubble want to short this stock? Remember, nobody knows how long the bubble will last nor how high prices will go. We can look back in time using the chart and see that the price peaked in late 2000. But at that time, we wouldn't know. We can't predict the future. What if the spike had continued for another six months?
You're a spaz cause it's in your genes
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Wed, 2008-06-18 11:56.From The Economist:
Of course, this analysis turns on the definition of “inappropriate”. The main symptom of ADHD is impulsiveness. Sufferers have trouble concentrating on any task unless they receive constant feedback, stimulation and reward. They thus tend to flit from activity to activity. Adults with ADHD tend to perform poorly in modern society and are prone to addictive and compulsive behaviour. But might such people do well in different circumstances?
One hypothesis is that the behaviour associated with ADHD helps people, such as hunter-gatherers and pastoral nomads, who lead a peripatetic life. Since today's sedentary city dwellers are recently descended from such people, natural selection may not have had time to purge the genes that cause it.
Chat with email scam artist
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Tue, 2008-06-17 11:05.The following is an IM conversation between someone who posts on a message board I frequent and an email scam artist. The scammer's email is first. The scam target's thoughts are in bold. Their chat follows at the end.
I have a listing out for a room in my place and received the
following e-mail from a potential roommate:
Hi ,
Thank you for your quick response.I would have loved to set up an appointment with you but at the moment,i am out of town. My name is Susan Rice and i am a deaf mute female caucasian of about 25 years of age.I am a native of York in Pennsylvania. I do not smoke. I am single with no kids and pets friendly and easy going.I am single and with no kids. I am currently trying to obtain my Masters degree in Clinical Pharmacy at Sunderland University in the UK. I will be rounding up my programme come june 10th,2008. I will be sending you a certified check of $3500 which will written in your name and cashable in your bank. I am sending you that much money because i will be using the balance to pay for my travelling expenses.I know this is a very difficult task but i am craving your indulgence to please take the check to your bank and cash it. After cashing,deduct the stipulated fees and send the balance to my travel agent via moneygram. Moneygram transfer is available in every Walmart outlets. Please send me your full name and address in order to write the payment in your name.
I hope to hear from you as soon as possible
Regards
Susan
Obviously a scam. But it came from a gmail address, and lo and behold, last night "her" id showed up in my gmail chat client. Curious, I decided to see if "she" would talk to me. Very interesting conversation. My favorite part was her concern for my well being at the end. Here's the transcript:
me: so do your scams ever work?
susan: yes
4:57 PM me: really? i'm amazed that there are people out there
naive/greedy enought to fall for such a thing
how often does it work?
4:58 PM susan: about 4-5 times a month
me: out of how many emails sent out?
4:59 PM like how much time do you spend sending them?
susan: why all this questions
me: I'm curious. I get these kind of e-mails all the time
5:00 PM I could not believe people were falling from them
but someone must be making a decent living off them if they still
keep coming
5:01 PM susan: it is a good business
Are you male or female
5:02 PM me: male. so is it enough to live off of?
susan: yes
me: and don't you worry about getting caught?
i guess you must be overseas
5:03 PM susan: no
5:05 PM There is so much laxity as regards internet security
5:06 PM me: true. and if you're based outside the US, it would be
costly to track you down. i doubt american officials even care at that
point.
5:07 PM so what is your average take on a successful run?
susan: $2500
5:08 PM me: $2500 a month or per take?
susan: PER TAKE
5:10 PM and you canget as much as 3-4 takes a month depending on how
lucky you are
me: tax free
5:11 PM does the government not pay attention to your expenditures
where you are
i guess if you pay cash for everything, there's nothing to trace...
especially depending on the country
5:12 PM that is quite a confortable living!
susan: yes
5:13 PM what do you do for a living
5:14 PM me: tax consulting for oil companies.
5:15 PM susan: you are a tax lawyer
me: no more of an accountant. but the laws are favorable for the oil
companies here
5:17 PM so is your priamry target americans or it works worldwide?
5:21 PM so about $100k/year?
5:22 PM susan: worldwide
it is like illegal drug business
5:23 PM the momentyou start, there is no going back
me: what do you mean
no going back
susan: you cannot stop
5:24 PM me: because the money is so easy you mean?
you don't work under anyone
5:26 PM do you have to live in a country with favorable laws or can
get away with this in industrial countries?
5:27 PM susan: yes
i am in Africa
5 minutes
5:33 PM me: Okay gotta go home and sift through the valid rental
offers. Talk to you later
susan: ok
5:34 PM dont fall scams
me: thanks for the info. very interesting. people are dumber than i
though!
susan: there are a lot of scams out there
5:35 PM good
take care
Tim Russert is dead
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Fri, 2008-06-13 14:43.Tom Brokaw just announced it on MSNBC.
Japan makes being fat illegal
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Fri, 2008-06-13 13:18.From the NY Times:
Those exceeding government limits — 33.5 inches for men and 35.4 inches for women, which are identical to thresholds established in 2005 for Japan by the International Diabetes Federation as an easy guideline for identifying health risks — and having a weight-related ailment will be given dieting guidance if after three months they do not lose weight. If necessary, those people will be steered toward further re-education after six more months.
To reach its goals of shrinking the overweight population by 10 percent over the next four years and 25 percent over the next seven years, the government will impose financial penalties on companies and local governments that fail to meet specific targets. The country’s Ministry of Health argues that the campaign will keep the spread of diseases like diabetes and strokes in check.
That's downright totalitarian. But in a public health care system, does the government really have any other option?
Why do have the sinking feeling that a similar policy is in the cards for the US?
Kherington Payne
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-06-12 21:13.Speaking of SYTYCD, one of this year's contestants is Kherington Payne, whose audition video follows.
One Republic's "Stop and Stare" had been an unremarkable mellow song to me. Kherington's audition changed it into an optimistic ballad. As the judges state, her expressions dominate the stage when she dances. In the clash between the song lyrics and her charisma, her charisma wins.
Most popular dancing that I see in clubs and so forth is rhythmic dancing. The movements coincide with the beat. It's refreshing to see dancing that doesn't rely on the rhythm of the song. Her movements are easy and elegant, her smile captivating.
Taleb's tips for life
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Thu, 2008-06-12 13:54.In case you missed, there was a great article on Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the Times Online. The exercise stuff is wacky, but the rest of the article is well worth reading. It's capped off with Taleb's "top life tips".
1 Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.
2 Go to parties. You can’t even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.
3 It’s not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.
4 Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act — if you can’t control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behaviour. You will always have the last word.
5 Don’t disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don’t understand their logic. Don’t pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific ‘evidence’.
6 Learn to fail with pride — and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error — by mastering the error part.
7 Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words ‘impossible’, ‘never’, ‘too difficult’ too often, drop him or her from your social network. Never take ‘no’ for an answer (conversely, take most ‘yeses’ as ‘most probably’).
8 Don’t read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.
9 Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.
10 Answer e-mails from junior people before more senior ones. Junior people have further to go and tend to remember who slighted them.
I especially like 1, 4, 5, and 7.
Lew Rockwell on Amit Singh
Submitted by Jonathan Wilde on Wed, 2008-06-11 23:54.Lew Rockwell, widely believed to have written the Ron Paul newsletters that effectively quashed Paul's campaign, writes:
Let's face it, folks. There is only one Ron Paul. Indeed, he is unique in the entire history of American politics. So I take with a grain of salt all the claims of various pols to be Ron Paulians. Oh, we do have free will. It is possible for an eloquent and principled intellectual to be a brilliant campaigner, to reject the lure of Power, and to work untouched in corrupt DC for peace and freedom -- to be another Ron Paul, that is. But even Jefferson sold out, so I am not holding my breath. And note that it is long-term performance in office that will decide the question, not campaign blather.
For example, I do not join those mourning the loss of Amit Singh in Northern Virginia. This minor-league merchant of death, who brags of being a contractor for the NSA and the Pentagon, and of helping write the software for Total Information Awareness!, ran for the Republican nomination for congress as a Ron Paulian. Perhaps conservative conman Mark Ellmore, who beat Singh last night, is even worse. But thanks to performance in office, here is one thing we know for sure: the incumbent, Democrat Jim Moran, is not bad on the war.
I had a long post typed up about everything that's wrong with this quote, but I think it's better to simply let Rockwell continue to dig his ever-enlarging grave.
link via Mark