David Masten's blog

Line of the year?

Elon Musk talking with Wired about SpaceX after their third launch failed to make orbit:

Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.


And When You Solve This One, There's a Nobel Waiting For You In Palestine.

I think I'm missing something. Jim Henley seems to be claiming that the Lockean notion of rights was somehow convenient for and enabling of European conquest of the Americas. He starts off quoting Locke's claim of a property right originating by mixing one's labor with unclaimed land. He then states:

This particular view of (real) property claims was very convenient to the Age of Colonization, since it gave Euro-originating settlers the opportunity to “mix their labor” with “something not already anyone’s property,” which is to say, land that was sustaining non-Europeans.

But I don't see the connection. The Lockean notion of property rights was very inconvenient for some European settlers. William Penn felt the need to negotiate for clear title with every indigenous community occupying his intended colony. This often included settling competing claims between multiple indigenous communities by buying the contested lands multiple times to ensure clear title.

The Lockean establishment of property rights by combining labor with unclaimed natural resources seems to me to be a fine rule. It is neutral with regards to an individual's ancestry or social class. The details can be set forth in a way to favor some particular individuals or class, but this does not appear to be the case in American history. There were a number of indigenous communities that met even the most strict interpretations of mixing labor with land. Many indigenous groups had agriculture and permanent settlements, obvious claims for land rights. Yet, European descendants still stole their land, and with the same rationalization as used for chattel slavery.

What was convenient to the settling Europeans and their descendants was that the indigenous people looked different enough that the Europeans could convince themselves that indigenous Americans were somehow not quite human, and therefore not entitled to any rights. This is the real problem - blatant racism. It has nothing to do with something being wrong with private property rights. By the Lockean notion of natural rights including property rights, many white settlers were clearly in the wrong, unjustly depriving people of life, liberty, and property.

Until we can all understand the root of the problem - treating some people as non-people - we will have seriously limited our ability to make things right and perfect our nation. As Americans we have a sordid history, with many wrongs that need to be corrected, including slavery, Jim Crow, and our treatment of the indigenous people. Unfortunately, how to correct those wrongs is not clear to me. My economic intuition tells me that straight reparations will be a cure far worse than the disease, likewise, just letting bygones be bygones or a token apology does not fit my moral intuition. My fear is that there is no just solution.

If you can figure out a good and just solution, Palestine also needs you.

Update: Kevin Carson has a good take, and I particularly like his quote of Karl Hess:

The truth, of course, is that libertarianism wants to advance principles of property but that it in no way wishes to defend, willy nilly, all property which now is called private.

Much of that property is stolen. Much is of dubious title. All of it is deeply intertwined with an immoral, coercive state system which has condoned, built on, and profited from slavery; has expanded through and exploited a brutal and aggressive imperial and colonial foreign policy, and continues to hold the people in a roughly serf-master relationship to political-economic power concentrations.

Update II: It is probably not clear above - I do not mean to say that Penn had read and adopted Locke's notions before coming to the conclusion to negotiate for clear land titles - this was more a matter of his Quaker beliefs and pragmatism. The Lockean notion of property rights are consistent with Penn's actions, and most likely not original to Locke.


Torture and Iran

Or "Why I Prefer The Carter Administration to The Present One"

And I believe the Carter administration left a lot to be desired, especially in dealing with Iranian religious fanatics.

First, some utilitarian sense on coercive interrogation torture:


(ht: Ed Brayton)

And a long article by Seymour Hersch in the New Yorker about covert activities in Iran. (ht: Thoreau)

The Administration may have been willing to rely on dissident organizations in Iran even when there was reason to believe that the groups had operated against American interests in the past. The use of Baluchi elements, for example, is problematic, Robert Baer, a former C.I.A. clandestine officer who worked for nearly two decades in South Asia and the Middle East, told me. “The Baluchis are Sunni fundamentalists who hate the regime in Tehran, but you can also describe them as Al Qaeda,” Baer told me. “These are guys who cut off the heads of nonbelievers—in this case, it’s Shiite Iranians. The irony is that we’re once again working with Sunni fundamentalists, just as we did in Afghanistan in the nineteen-eighties.” Ramzi Yousef, who was convicted for his role in the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who is considered one of the leading planners of the September 11th attacks, are Baluchi Sunni fundamentalists.

So let me get this right - the current administration is encouraging Al Queda allies and religious brethren to create political instability in Iran. Most likely by giving them weapons and training them in guerrilla warfare. Or in other words creating Al Qaeda 2.0.

The Bush administration is truly incompetent and evil. Probably not news to anyone.


Still Lovin' That Simon Guy.

Even with oil prices shooting towards the heavens faster than a Saturn V, I still think that Julian Simon is essentially correct. From Tyler Cowen's list of hypotheses I'll take #4 - Markets don't allow bets on Simon's claim. At least not reasonable bets for those of us with limited funds. I won't be laughing my way to the bank as the common shorting instruments have limited upside and unlimited downside (err...why does that seem backwards?). IOW, current conditions will hold longer than I can remain solvent.

If reasonable terms can be had, I'll wager that the lowest per gallon price for gasoline that I will buy in my life is in the future.

However, I want to hedge my bet. If energy markets are insufficiently free then prices will continue to rise indefinitely. There is a lot of ruin in an economy, are the energy markets free enough or are we about to find the limits?

  • Significant oil reserves are off limits at any price.
  • Alternative energy subsidies are concentrating entrepreneurs and investors on what may very well be the poorest energy substitutes.
  • Many oil producers are state owned and being siphoned for short term political gains.
  • The most promising substitute for fossil fuels is for all intents only possible as a state run enterprise.
  • The nation that is soon to be the world's biggest oil consumer is subsidizing consumption.
  • Continuing war in one major oil producing nation and threatening another major producer can not be helping.

The two scenarios for 2028:
#1 - The market is free enough and our dominate energy sources are increasingly non-fossil fuel and some were unknown in 2008. Oil exploration and production continues to increase, and consumption either decreases or at least increases at a much lower rate than production.

#2 - Prices continue to rise, though possibly at a slower rate. Political tensions between major consumers and suppliers increase, possibly to open hostility between nations that have other stresses between them. I am not sure whether it will be consumer vs consumer or consumers vs producers, possibly both. Politicians enact even more counter-productive legislation. In the U.S., price controls and nationalizing energy companies becomes increasingly likely.

I'll bet on #1, but only with a hedge for #2.

[Update: cleared up possible confusion in scenario #1]


Oh really!?

According to Sen. Christopher Bond, R-Mo:

I'm not here to say that the government is always right, but when the government tells you to do something, I'm sure you would all agree that I think you all recognize that is something you need to do.

HELL NO.

(ht: Jim Henley)


The cdesign proponentists of Economics

I am a bit late to this party, but seeing as how I live in the state I thought I would point out something about the idea of remote controlled thermostats. Fortunately, the idea is being shelved for now, or at least not being made mandatory yet. I am sure a bit of googling will get you commentary on the Orwellian nature of it, but I want to concentrate on the economic idiocy behind the whole deal.

Can we spot the real problem? Monopoly and price controls. The so called deregulation of the electric market in the 90's in California had nothing to do with deregulating it. It is still all price controls and government grant of monopoly. The idiots think that some intelligent designer must set prices and thermostats or else no one will get it right. How about market pricing and removing barriers to entry? Shortages and gluts (i.e. waste) are what necessarily comes from price controls. Simple intro to microeconomics bit here. This isn't rocket science, but it is well established economic science - for private goods (like electricity) the free market works, do not mess with it.

Sorry folks, I am getting nearly as frustrated with people refusing to believe economics as I am the geocentrists for refusing to believe Galileo and creationists for not believing Darwin. There really is no excuse for any of it in this modern society.


Libertarian Ideals and Racism

I am confused about what Will Wlikinson and Micha are actually saying. On the one hand I think they are saying that libertarians need to get away from the natural/negative rights and include some effort towards positive rights. On the other hand they seem to waffle enough to allow us to interpret their words as a call for better marketing, without changing the libertarian position. Let's see if I can both argue against the first interpretation while providing ammunition for the second.

Racism in the U.S. is historically a political phenomenon, not an economic one. The power of racists scales proportionately with the power of the state. After the Civil War and the end of slavery in the U.S., the former slaves started moving up the economic ladder - they were becoming educated, gaining valuable skills, and starting to move into the middle class. This scared many of the people who held political power. This political power was translated into the Jim Crow legislation. The Achille's heel of both federalism and democracy is that such injustices can and do occur.

It was the general laissez-faire attitude of the time that allowed the former slaves and their children to start moving up in society, to make a better world for themselves - and at the same time make everyone else better off. We can see from the nature of the legislation designed to keep the blacks "in their place" that it was libertarian laissez-faire economics that was decreasing the inequalities between the former slaves and their masters. The laws were not just seperate facilities, but licensing of trades and professions, gun control, and the enforcement of lesser facilities and services for blacks, in other words the denial of the very rights that libertarians espouse. Even today the systematic racism that still exists in many places is at the interface between a black person and the legal system - disparities between how blacks and whites are treated in the legal system and by law enforcement. Would the Duke students been exonerated if they were poor blacks from the local community college? Would we even know? Systematic racism requires political enforcement, either explicitly through Jim Crow legislation or implicitly by not enforcing the law and protecting the rights of the minority.

This is not to say that there are no problems in the purely laissez faire system. As one example, restaurants and clubs were not integrating nearly as fast in the post Civil war, pre Jim Crow era as other businesses, but I believe the evidence supports the view that those restaurants and clubs would have integrated faster than waiting around for the states to get rid of J Crow. Additionally, despite the positive right to be served at a restaurant, there are still restaurants and clubs that will treat customers of the wrong color so poorly as to dissuade them from returning - a certain Denny's comes to mind. Even with anti-racism laws, racism is still a problem because local bureaucrats and politicians may themselves be racist and fail to enforce the laws. Indeed the worst acts of racism were abetted by the knowledge that local law enforcement would selectively enforce laws - turning a blind eye to the lynchers and terrorists while noticing with an eagle eye any minor infraction on the part of the victim or his family and friends.

The natural rights/deontological libertarian has a very strong argument against both the state and racism, without supporting any positive rights.


Thank you.

For all those who have offered their lives (whether actually given or not) in the defense of liberty, thank you, and Happy Veterans Day.


Maybe I'm Biased, but...

Some brain surgeons are claiming that rocket scientists aren't all that smart. I'm not so sure about studies authored by brain surgeons. Besides, unlike brain surgeons, rocket scientists have to make contributions to the field* before they are considered rocket scientists.

Oh and then a University of Minnesota Expert claims University of Minnesota Experts are even smarter. Come on now. PZ Myers can be considered an expert in some things, is at the University of Minnesota, and is pretty darn intelligent, but smarter than rocket scientists? I don't think so.

*more specifically - contribute pieces of their rocket to the field (meadow, desert, canyon, or whatever, we aren't picky) they are testing in. Preferably in an explosive manner.


Making the News

This blogger is not just reporting on what the mainstream is reporting.

See Tuesday's LA Times Times here.

Hmmm. I need to lose some weight and get a haircut.


What I've Been Reading

 How a Visionary Band of Business Leaders, Engineers, and Pilots Is Boldly Privatizing Space
 

Rocketeers: How a Visionary Band of Business Leaders, Engineers, and Pilots Is Boldly Privatizing Space
by Michael Belfiore. I just can't read it. I am too close to the action, in fact I'm in it! (Both the action and the book.) That is a rather weird feeling, even if I am just a brief mention. Someone from here should pick it up and let me know how it is.

Dennet, Dennet, and more Dennet. Then even more Dennet. Consciousness Explained, Freedom Evolves, and Elbow Room: The Varieties of Free Will Worth Wanting. Three excellent books, unfortunately I am having a tough time getting through them. I have just finished Freedom Evolves, and I highly recommend it. In fact I'll have more to say about it in another blog post shortly. I began Conciosness Explained, but got sidetracked on other things, so that has re-joined the "to read" pile. I got nearly halfway into Elbow Room and I still felt like he was writing the opening chapter rather than getting into the meat of his arguments, so I put it down and may or may not pick it up again. I just picked up Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenom, the first chapter is pretty good. Despite the fact that I am having difficulty getting through his books he is becoming my favorite contemporary philosopher, and gaining ground on the historical greats.

Discover Your Inner Economist by Tyler Cowen. Sorry, pamphlets this short do no not deserve the long subtitle. In fact I'm not sure the subtitled isn't longer than the book. 221 pages, double spaced. That said there are some interesting points within, though most of those can be found on his blog. I think the blogging has gotten to his book writing. Wait for it to go on clearance for $5. Tyler is a good guy, his blog is excellent, and he is a good thinker, which is why I picked up the book. But the book is just not worth $25.95.

Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas Hofstadter. This one has been a constant travel companion for the last several months. This goes into the always reading, studying and re-reading pile with Penrose's The Road to Reality. Once again I'd like to point out to publishers - there is some serious math here, and that is a plus not a negative. This book is concerned with AI, conciousness, and so forth but he uses Escher's art and Bach's Fugues and Canons as excellent illustrations. This book is a steal at full graduate level textbook prices, but is only $22.95. The Dialogues alone are worth that!

The Penguin Historical Atlas of Ancient Civilizations by John Haywood. Not a great book by itself, it is rather thin and only spends two or three pages on each of the great ancient civilizations. But for those of us that absolutely need pretty pictures, maps and graphs to make sense of things, it has been very helpful as I dig my way through various dry books on ancient Mesopotamia.


About My Personal Blog

With this whole new Distributed Republic thing being a combination of blogs, I need to decide how to place the various bits I blog about. I have often used Catallarchy as a sounding board to get crazy ideas out, and I will still do so. However, there are crazy ideas which I think deserve a more limited audience - or that I'm not sure on how or if to proceed. For that my personal blog will suffice. As always, if I post it I want feedback, but understand I am even less sure of what I post to the personal blog than I am to the main Catallarchy page, if that is possible. Also I will update the posts as I see fit and may or may not indicate any edits. Lastly I may not respond directly to comments, though you can be sure that I want them. As I said "If I post it I want feedback!". So thanks in advance for the feedback.

I guess then that my personal blog could be considered to be home for my "working blogposts".

One of the projects that I will keep to my personal blog for now is a "How to convince the religious to give up religion" project. There are a number of sub-projects to this, one being how (not) to argue for atheism. Another is my own travels from Christian by default to agnostic back to Christian by default, to Christian by choice, to agnostic and thence atheist. And lastly some history and pre-history of the Levant and Mesopotamia and the rise of Abrahamic theology.

Other projects to come.

 


Why Omnibenevolence Allows Bad Things to Happen

Or why the argumant that an omnibenevolent diety wouldn't allow tsunamis, terrorists, and other Bad Things is wrong.

Atheists have long put forward the notion that an ominpotent, omnibenevolent being would not cause so much death and suffering as the Christian god apparently does. But this analysis can only be right if benevolence is taken from materialist assumptions. One would be wise to consider that Christian death is not the same as materialist death. To the Christian, death is just a transition from earth to heaven (or hell). An early transistion is not necessarily bad.

The Christian apology for bad things happening on earth are as follows:

Premises:

  1. Death is the transition from life on earth to life in heaven
  2. Being seperated from the deity is less good than being with the deity
  3. Life on earth means being seperated from the deity
  4. Life in heaven is being with the deity

Theorems:

  1. Life on earth is less good than life in heaven
  2. Death is good.*

Whoa! Why then would an omnibenevolent being have a life on earth then? Rather than a nice little sequence of logic statements, let us look instead at an analogy. When training for an athletic event, the training involves some pain and suffering, yet the athlete considers this as minor to the end good of participating and (hopefully) winning the event. Likewise, the Christian may view life as a sort of preperation, a learning phase where suffering and pain are building and improving the eternal soul.

So, the atheist makes two mistakes in arguing against a deity being omnibenevolent: first is the materialist premises, the second is the false dichotomy of good or bad rather than the continous spectrum of bad to good.

With so many *good* arguments against Christianity, and religions in general, why do atheists continue using this bad argument?

* Yes this is sick. There are also nuances and caveats that I do not go into here, and do not affect this argument, but may apply elsewhere.


Trust Is Economically Important

If you have not already done so, go read Constant's post.

"Trust" as a concept is not as simple as it first appears. What exactly is "trust"? Is the shopkeeper who leaves the coolers unlocked trusting me, or has she placed her trust somewhere else?

The answer to the first question is something along the lines of "a belief that given a set of circumstances, an actor will perform a given action". There are three concepts (or variables) within this definition. We have our estimate of a probability, we say we "trust" when we think the probabilities of an action by an actor exceed some threshold. Then we have the actor, which may or may not actually be a person; it may also be some set of people, an inanimate object, or an abstract concept. Finally we have the expected action, anything the actor might be capable of. And not only that, but trust can also be composed of other trust relationships.

For the second question, what is the shopkeeper trusting when she leaves the coolers unlocked? I seriously doubt she is trusting the particular individual Joe Sixpack who just walked in. More likely she is trusting a combination of inanimate objects, a large set of people, and some abstract concepts. She has placed trust in security systems, such as the store layout that encourages people to pass by the cash register on the way out, mirrors that allow her to see down many aisles at a time, and the securty cameras. She trusts that most people will not steal. She trusts the legal institutions - law, police, and courts to come to her aid and punish thieves. Finally, what she really trusts is that the interactions between the customers, security systems and legal system mean that the few theft losses she does incur are an acceptable cost of business.

Trust in specific people probably does not matter as much as having trustworthy institutions.


Health Care and Logic

Sad to say I expect this misuse of logic from CNN. But I do not expect to see Matthew Yglesias use it to buttress his argument:

CNN's SiCKO analysis concludes:
[...]

France . . . Canada . . . cheap . . . but does their health care suck? Well:

Like Moore, we also found that more money does not equal better care. Both the French and Canadian systems rank in the Top 10 of the world's best health-care systems, according to the World Health Organization. The United States comes in at No. 37. The rankings are based on general health of the population, access, patient satisfaction and how the care's paid for.

So, okay, it's not that hard to figure out. France and Canada both have two difference systems of health care delivery both of which are cheaper than the US system and both of which are more effective.

Let me repeat the key sentence with emphasis added:

The rankings are based on general health of the population, access, patient satisfaction and how the care's paid for.

Matthew - isn't that assuming your conclusion?


Taxicabs and Regulation

PZ - I am very sorry to read about you being taken for a ride in Boston. But why do you think there isn't much regulation of cab drivers in Boston? I am failing to think of a major city that does not have heavy regulation on cabs and cab drivers.

Amongst the unintended (at least unintended by the Baptist half of the Bootlegger & Baptist coalition) effects of regulation are increased barriers to entry and a reduction service levels towards the lowest common denominator. A heavy regulatory environment is effectively a legalized cartel granted and enforced by the government. Perhaps I am over cynical, but the cabbie took you for a ride. 'Mis-hearing' and 'asking for directions from other cabbies' was an act, and signaling to the other cabbies that he was having a good day, at your expense. In the best circumstances, the regulated industries work for the regulators not the customers. In the worst circumstances, the regulators are former industry employees and future industry consultants.

BTW, I love Friday's cephalopod. Kinda cute.


Celebrating 100 Years of Heinlein

On 7/7/7 Robert A. Heinlein would have been 100 years old. And if the series of seven's isn't enough coincidence, it is also a Saturday! Add up all the coincidences and you guessed it, there is one hell of a big party happening. Sign up, reserve your hotel rooms, and make your way to the event.

I will be on several panels speaking about spaceships and space business. Schedule permitting, I will be in the front row heckling asking pointed questions at the panels dealing with Heinlein's takes on revolution, economics, and politics.

If coming to see me hold forth on space flight is not enough - how about coming to see astronauts Buzz Aldrin and Brian Binnie, many great writers (including Sir Arthur C. Clarke), and many others?

See you at the Heinlein Centennial!


Busy, busy, busy

Rumor has it that MSS is about to fly a vehicle Any Day Now(tm). So instead of helping get DR up and running, I am going nuts getting XA0.1 up and running.


Random Observations

On "Card Check": The corporate stooge will threaten your livelihood. The union stooge will threaten your life.
This is purely from my own experience in a union shop and thus anecdotal. I am not sure how to collect data - how does one collect instances of "I'm concerned about your work habits and your safety"? Note to Megan - no need to invoke organized crime, the union is better off finding the one or two sociopaths in the company in question.  read more »


Riffing on a Footnote

Joe Miller writes in a footnote:

I’d be willing to bet that somebody is going to make the argument that everyone always behaves rationally. There will be some reference to the fact that individuals have their own sets of preferences and to the fact that they always act according to their own personal orderings of those preferences and thus always act rationally.  read more »