Voter Rage

In what is perhaps the most interesting political story of recent months, Democrat Martha Coakley is currently trailing Republican Scott Brown 53-46 with 69% precincts reporting per CNN, and this includes half of Boston reporting. Even an apolitical rube like me knows what the implications are should Brown hold on for the win:

* Democrats would lose a key vote in the Senate and make healthcare reform less likely.
* Democrats are in deep, deep trouble in 2010.
* The best phrase I've heard to describe this result is "voter rage". People in the bluest of the blue states are angry as hell at Washington DC.
* I don't care what any internet pundit says, the heart and soul of the American is libertarian. That doesn't mean they're raving minarchists (obviously), but they're deeply skeptical of government power and prefer divided government.
* I don't care what anyone television pundit says, this is about healthcare. A corollary to the prior point is that Americans have always and will always reject government-run health care. They may be okay with government doing many things, but when it comes to the government being responsible for their health, they will always say no. If I may quote myself:

Based on the people I talk to every day including patients, the tide is turning. The warm-and-fuzzy glow has worn off and we're now at the "hold on just a minute, let's think this through" stage. And the fight against health care reform has barely begun. The black box hasn't even been opened yet. If you were to ask the average Joe what's in the various proposals under consideration, he would have no answer. The more reform gets delayed, the worse it gets for Obamacare's chances. When the black box is fully opened, Obama better pray that the Democratic majority is enough to override the public sentiment.

If the black box is fully opened--if the public fully understands what reform actually entails--Americans will revolt against it just like they did under Bill Clinton, FDR, and Teddy Roosevelt.

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Just two words for you:

Ronald Reagan.

I assume you mean to say...

...that Reagan's popularity was also crap this far into his first term yet he survived?

Differences:

1)Reagan had a fed chief who was willing to fight inflation instead of generate it.
2)Reagan's term coincided with the start of a mega bull market. We're still 7-8 years away from that right now.
3)Reagan's message appealed to the middle of the spectrum, which as I said above, is tempermentally libertarian. Obama has shown not a hint, shred, micron of small govt advocacy.