Prediction Markets for parole?

Michael Keenan writes:

When you have a future prediction problem, the best solution available is (in most cases, when some normal conditions like liquidity hold) prediction markets. I propose replacing parole boards with prediction markets on the likelihood of recidivism for each convict.

This is a great example of the problem with having criminal law instead of just civil law. With civil law, the whole thing obviously becomes an insurance problem. If you commit a crime, your future defense agency rates go up - and how much they go up depends on your chance of recidivism.

If you committed a crime and were uninsured and are now in debt, whether you are in prison (not working), in prison working, or out working depends on the relative income you can earn in those situations, and the recidivism rate that whoever takes responsibility for you (your defense agency) expects.

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