11.10.08 Market Thoughts

Currently: S&P down 1.7%

There's ugliness in the market right now. The Rally of Skepticism is over as there's very little skepticism out there. Complacency is rampant. With this new state of affairs, all history is irrelevant, including what I previously thought was capitulation day.

Be very, very careful. It looks like the market is teetering on the edge of a cliff.

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Iteration analysis...

If you view history as a strange attractor, the problem is not predictability within the system, but in analysis of the iterations. Economic history (as a complex, chaotic system) is so incredibly convoluted, that it is hard just trying to find out what is going on now, let alone what the system will look like in the future.

Some big events are about to occur. What these will be nobody knows for certain, your guess is as good as mine.

An interesting video along these lines.

At this stage in the game, we all might have better luck predicting the weather.