I Call For McCain

Here's my reasoning. Obama has raised so much cash and has run so many ads that the American public will blame him for all the commercial interruptions during their favorite shows. Mark my words.

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I have 50 bucks @ 1:6.21

I have 50 bucks @ 1:6.21 rooting for you. Wonder if I should double down at 1:10

Intrade will be tested

If McCain wins it will be a blow to the credibility of Intrade (insofar as Intrade is treated as a forecasting service). Strictly speaking Obama's 90%+ rating is compatible with an Obama loss, but there is also the possibility to consider that Intrade is not, in fact, reliable. Whatever probability we assign to that possibility, Bayesian inference will bump it up significantly if Obama loses.

This is the gist of my

This is the gist of my trade. If prediction market and polls are underestimating ignorance, the odds should be closer to 1:1. Buying the underdog is betting on ignorance. How Talebian :)

It's not that I think people are overconfident pricks, I just think information on the result of the election are too costly to acquire compared with the market's depth. I believe people are mostly basing their trades on the same polls. It implies correlation thus volatility thus ignorance.

Note that we'll get more than simply 6 bits of information about prediction markets if McCain wins since there are markets for each state, for congress, etc. If people start booing prediction markets for not calling McCain, there should be enough bets to see if they have a point.

Intrade passes test

So Intrade is now significantly more credible to me. Of course, that only bumps up the credibility, it's not proof (any more than a McCain win would be proof of its lack of credibility).

See I was right

McCain won and Obama is being punished by the voters electing him president in an economic environment he (or McCain) is sure to screw up.

Are you kidding ? Some guy

Are you kidding ? Some guy 80 years down the line will take the hit when Obama's economic policy collapse. Obama will be here for 3 years and he'll become a legend. This guy is going to become more unquestionable than Lincoln, FDR and JFK together.

Yes, I am kidding

Of course, I'm kidding. I was kidding all along and yes this is the FDR scenario. Obama is going to be played up as god like just like FDR and Lincoln.

I told my boss in 1999 that the Republicans better hope they lose the election because the economic meltdown from the internet bubble is going to be a whopper. He laughed at the idea.

The Republicans and Democrats have been playing hot potato with the economy for as long as I can remember. Nixon's policies were about as stupid as they come, wage and price controls, inflating the money supply, going of the gold standard. Carter, another idiot, ended up holding the hot potato on that one.

Bush was an idiot. He had the perfect opportunity to let the economic bubble unwind without blame, 9/11, and he didn't take it. He should have put a Volker style Fed Chairman in place when he had the chance. Instead he let interest rates go down to 1% and turned our country into a gigantic real estate scam, on top of being a stock and bond scam.