Catallarchy’s College Football Top 25 - Week 11

For all games up to 11/12, here are the updated rankings:

Rank - Team
1 Texas (1)
2 USC (2)
3 Miami (5)
4 Penn State (4)

5 Ohio State (6)
6 LSU (8)
7 Oregon (10)
8 VaTech (9)

9 Alabama (3)
10 Oklahoma (16)
11 WVU (14)
12 UCLA (15)
13 TCU (7)
14 Michigan (17)
15 Auburn (18)
16 Fresno State (22)
17 South Carolina (24)
18 Notre Dame (30)

19 Texas Tech (11)
20 Colorado (12)
21 Louisville (27)

22 Georgia (13)
23 UTEP (29)
24 Minnesota (28)
25 Iowa State (31)

Dropped Out:
28 Georgia Tech (20)

29 Florida (21)
32 Northwestern (23)
42 Boise State (25)

Other Catallarchy teams of note:
40 Miami (OH) (35)
43 Western Michigan (45)

68 Purdue (72)

80 Kentucky (95)

Commentary below, full rankings on page 2, and rankings of conferences & schedules on page 3.

And finally, clarity has descended upon the college football landscape. There are only 2, and there can now be only one, in true Highlander fashion. Alabama couldn't get it done against LSU, though that didn't surprise me too much. Alabama is not far enough removed from last year, and like VT the season caught up with them, though unlike VT they didn't stink up the joint by not even bothering to show up.

Severe props to the Evil Genius for pulling out the win over Florida, which IIRC South Carolina had not done in over 50+ years. USC-East beat Tennessee and Florida in Spurrier's inaugural year, which is impressive however you slice it (even admitting that Tennessee is a big hopeless mess this year). And while we're in the SEC, what a game the UGA/Auburn tilt was. Auburn leads the all time score by 2 points, I believe. Poor UGA, 2 losses at the end of the year to really dampen the party mood. However, given what the EG did to Florida, UGA can still win the East and get relative home field advantage vs. the SEC-West champ, and hopefully from there to the BCS.

Bye-bye, FSU. We hardly knew ye.

To Stormy's relief, Miami has jumped PSU. At least he won't have to boil his fingers this week. Miami is cruising to a well-deserved BCS slot, though with the weakness of the Coastal division this year the inaugural championship game is probably going to be (and ought to be) an anticlimax. Good luck to the 'Canes going forward, I hope they get to #2 with a bullet after the championship game is played. :)

On poll mechanics, the TCU bug was identified and fixed. TCU is one of only 3 teams to have played 11 games (10 games last week) and the only one to have one its 11th game. Because of a quirk in the equations, TCU was essentially getting a 33% boost to its total rank score because of being out in front (the usual dampener for teams ahead of the curve was not up to snuff in this outlier case). I corrected that by putting in a "quorum" caveat to the points; if less than half of the teams in Div 1-A have played that particular game #, the points for that game are discounted according to the shortfall. That eliminated the TCU anomaly and they dropped back to #13 (vs. being #4 in this week's poll without the correction). While it annoys me that quirks are still popping out in the system at this late date, I'm glad to have them fixed and that the equations are more robust (as if my spreadsheet is all that rigorous ;) ).

Rank - Team -
1 Texas
2 USC
3 Miami
4 Penn State
5 Ohio State
6 LSU
7 Oregon
8 VaTech
9 Alabama
10 Oklahoma
11 WVU
12 UCLA
13 TCU
14 Michigan
15 Auburn
16 Fresno State
17 South Carolina
18 Notre Dame
19 Texas Tech
20 Colorado
21 Louisville
22 Georgia
23 UTEP
24 Minnesota
25 Iowa State
26 Wisconsin
27 BYU
28 Georgia Tech
29 Florida
30 Virginia
31 Boston College
32 Northwestern
33 Missouri
34 Toledo
35 Iowa
36 South Florida
37 UCF
38 Clemson
39 Florida State
40 Miami (OH)
41 Stanford
42 Boise St.
43 Western Michigan
44 New Mexico
45 La Tech
46 Maryland
47 Nevada
48 Colorado State
49 Nebraska
50 Kansas
51 Pitt
52 Southern Miss
53 Northern Illinois
54 Az. State
55 UNC
56 Texas A&M
57 Utah
58 Tulsa
59 Cal
60 Rutgers
61 San Diego State
62 Tennessee
63 Oregon State
64 Oklahoma St.
65 Bowling Green
66 NC State
67 Michigan State
68 Purdue
69 Central Michigan
70 Ball State
71 Cincinnati
72 Houston
73 Wake Forest
74 La Lafayette
75 Arkansas
76 Arkansas State
77 Wyoming
78 Ohio
79 Kansas State
80 Kentucky
81 Baylor
82 Arizona
83 Marshall
84 Navy
85 UNLV
86 Memphis
87 Indiana
88 U Conn
89 La Monroe
90 Ole Miss
91 Akron
92 Army
93 Air Force
94 UAB
95 Vanderbilt
96 Washington State
97 Middle TN State
98 SMU
99 Hawaii
100 Washington
101 Troy State
102 ECU
103 Illinois
104 Eastern Michigan
105 Mississippi State
106 Idaho
107 Utah State
108 Rice
109 Fla Intl
110 Syracuse
111 Duke
112 Fla Atlantic
113 North Texas
114 Tulane
115 Buffalo
116 Kent State
117 New Mexico State
118 San Jose State
119 Temple

Conferences by Average Rank:
Ranking - Conf - Average Team Rank
1 Big 12 (41)
2 Big Ten (42)
3 ACC (44)
4 SEC (50)
5 Pac-10 (52)
6 Notre Dame (54)
7 Big East (56)
8 MWC (56)
9 MAC (73)
10 Conf USA (77)
11 WAC (77)
12 Sun Belt (96)
13 I-A Indep (98)

Div 1-A ranking by Schedule Strength:
Rank - Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Kansas
3 Michigan
4 Colorado State
5 Temple
6 San Diego State
7 Ohio State
8 UNC
9 Minnesota
10 Illinois
11 Northwestern
12 Wyoming
13 Tennessee
14 Missouri
15 Arkansas
16 South Carolina
17 Penn State
18 Purdue
19 BYU
20 New Mexico
21 Stanford
22 Washington
23 Georgia Tech
24 Florida
25 Ball State
26 Rice
27 Colorado
28 Oklahoma St.
29 Air Force
30 Syracuse
31 New Mexico State
32 Texas A&M
33 Texas
34 Arizona
35 Az. State
36 USC
37 Maryland
38 South Florida
39 Baylor
40 Kansas State
41 Michigan State
42 Washington State
43 Iowa
44 Utah
45 Boston College
46 Duke
47 VaTech
48 Wake Forest
49 Utah State
50 Nebraska
51 Alabama
52 Central Michigan
53 Indiana
54 TCU
55 Oregon State
56 NC State
57 Georgia
58 Clemson
59 Miami
60 Virginia
61 Mississippi State
62 Notre Dame
63 Cincinnati
64 Eastern Michigan
65 Army
66 UNLV
67 Kentucky
68 Wisconsin
69 Auburn
70 Pitt
71 Ohio
72 Hawaii
73 Oregon
74 Iowa State
75 UCLA
76 Northern Illinois
77 Florida State
78 Ole Miss
79 Vanderbilt
80 Bowling Green
81 North Texas
82 WVU
83 Buffalo
84 Marshall
85 Memphis
86 SMU
87 Idaho
88 Cal
89 LSU
90 Louisville
91 ECU
92 Southern Miss
93 Nevada
94 Texas Tech
95 U Conn
96 Houston
97 Fresno State
98 Kent State
99 Tulane
100 Tulsa
101 Fla Atlantic
102 Middle TN State
103 UCF
104 UAB
105 Boise St.
106 La Tech
107 Rutgers
108 Toledo
109 La Lafayette
110 Akron
111 Miami (OH)
112 San Jose State
113 Troy State
114 Western Michigan
115 Fla Intl
116 La Monroe
117 Arkansas State
118 UTEP
119 Navy

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Which one of you cats went

Which one of you cats went to Miami U?

Bob- None of us. Both

Bob-

None of us. Both Jonathan and I are Hokies. :) I am gracious enough to admit that Miami pimp slapped VT up and down the field, and as such should go and win out (to make us look better in retrospect). I hate it when teams that pimp slap us go and stink up the joint later, it ruins the illusion that we were destined to lose and thus it was out of our hands...

Love your blog. But when it

Love your blog. But when it comes to football, you're all wet.
How can anybody rank any team above USC? They have the longest DIV-I winning streak in the country. Haven't lost a single game since 2003, and they just trounced the team that did that (Cal).
Until somebody steps up and knocks them down, seems to me they belong on top.
And does anybody (except an orange-bleeding Longhorn diehard) honestly believe Texas will beat USC come January 4? If so, do you wanna bet?

(Btw, I'm not even a USC grad or fan.)

Brian, Miami U = Miami

Brian,

Miami U = Miami (Ohio)
U of Miami = Miami (Fla)

:grin:

Go Broncos!

Bob, I think Brian has a

Bob,

I think Brian has a couple of buddies at Miami(OH) who read the blog.

Doug- Oops. THanks for the

Doug-

Oops. THanks for the catch.

Bob-

Yeah a bud of mine from back in the day is currently at the Miami(OH) Econ department so I throw their ranking up there for giggles & grins.

Alistair-

For what its worth, subjectively I agree with you (though only slightly). USC is a more complete team than Texas, but Texas is pretty potent this year, finally living up to the hype with their uber-QB. Texas reminds me of VT in 1999. I don't think UT has the playmakers that USC has and I think that will make the difference, but I honestly have to say that its too close to call.

As far as the ratings go, the idea was to see what an objective rendering of common ranking biases would come up with- a system that looks strictly at wins/losses and no MOV and then tweaks that input a bit. Generally speaking an undefeated team will be ranked above a 1-loss team, 1 over 2, etc etc. There are adjustments for when a team lost (losses later in the season hurt more than early losses), for how their conference mates are doing, and for how tough a schedule they're playing, and a slight residual (now) for how well they did last year.

When it's all said and done, Texas has a very very slight lead in the numbers because (as I've said repeatedly over the past few weeks), the PAC-10's bottom half is horrid. Just plain awful. As of 2 weeks ago they had 3 teams with 2 or fewer losses, and a team that was O for the season. USC plays in the PAC-10 and has these awful teams on its schedule. Texas' schedule is full of teams with 3 or more wins (minimum), and the B12 had (as of 2 weeks ago) 10 out of 12 teams above .500. These two facts are what pushes Texas slightly over USC. Not hard to understand, though perhaps if I put up the actual rating #s people might see how close it is. Though without knowing the formulae the number itself would be kind of meaningless.

Leaving that aside, isn't it a bit harsh & hasty to say that the ratings system as a whole is "all wet" just because it inverts your #1 and #2? How about the rest of the top 10/25? Overall I think its a pretty fair system that, miracle of miracles, actually has some connection to reality. This suggests to me that the underlying biases are somewhat valid...

It wasn't relief so much as

It wasn't relief so much as very grudging respect. Personally, I'd much rather have Penn State (my school) ahead of Miami (who has no class). I just didn't, at the time, think Penn State really was better. Although Miami's choke this week seems to have changed that.

If only Fresno State had held on a little bit longer against USC.

Stormy- Yeah, fleeting hope.

Stormy-

Yeah, fleeting hope. Then again, Xmas came early already for the Hokie Nation so I can't complain :grin: - besides, USC losing really wouldn't have an impact on VT (not in the MNC race anymore) but it would be pretty funny though.

Right on. Texas is going to

Right on. Texas is going to stomp USC.