Catallarchy’s College Football Top 25 - Week 10

For all games up to 11/05, here are the updated rankings:

Rank - Team Week 9
1 Texas (1)
2 USC (2)
3 Alabama (4)
4 Penn State (8)

5 Miami (7)
6 Ohio State (10)
7 TCU (17)
8 LSU (9)
9 VaTech (3)

10 Oregon (13)
11 Texas Tech (11)
12 Colorado (15)
13 Georgia (12)
14 WVU (18)
15 UCLA (5)
16 Oklahoma (16)
17 Michigan (19)
18 Auburn (20)
19 Wisconsin (6)
20 Georgia Tech (22)

21 Florida (23)
22 Fresno State (21)
23 Northwestern (27)
24 South Carolina (26)
25 Boise St. (29)

Dropped Out:
26 Florida State (14)
33 Boston College (24)
39 Cal (25)

Other Catallarchy teams of note:
27 Louisville (30)
30 Notre Dame (36)
35 Miami (OH) (45)
45 Western Michigan (58)

72 Purdue (89)
95 Kentucky (86)

Commentary below, full rankings on page 2, and rankings of conferences & schedules on page 3.

There's no joy in the Hokie Nation. :bigcry: VT was unmasked, the pretender to the throne sent packing. As I said earlier in the season, to me a championship team has to have 5 things: athletes, great offense, great defense, execution, and heart. About the only think that VT showed on the field this past saturday was the first, while Miami had all 5 in spades. UM hasn't played to its potential all year, and bummer for the Hokies that they brought the A+ game right when the rest of the team decided to skip.

This of course is the beauty of college football; VT now has no shot at the MNC barring very odd circumstances (nor can VT win the ACC, barring a very odd choke by UM). No playoff fluke can allow VT to take the crown; no do-overs, period, its done. Every game matters which is yet another reason why playoffs need to be punted from discussion. We have at the very least a single elimination playoff in November as it is.

On the bright side, VT still has an outside shot at an at-large BCS berth. The human polls and my poll didn't punish VT too harshly for laying a big egg in Blacksburg (7 points in garbage time doesn't change the fact of the utter domination by Miami), so if VT takes care of business, we'll likely be the highest ranked non-champion from the BCS. Granted, they didn't take VT at large when we had Michael Vick in 2000, so its still slim. But within possibility.

I like the poll how it is now, though I have no idea how TCU popped up from 17 to 7. None.

Notre Dame is sneaking in there... if not for the 2 losses they'd be ranked pretty high.

I can't believe that BC and FSU choked. Ugh. At least the FSU loss doesn't affect VT anymore, but what is it about teams that are ranked when we beat them and then they tank their season?

Rank - Team -
1 Texas
2 USC
3 Alabama
4 Penn State
5 Miami
6 Ohio State
7 TCU
8 LSU
9 VaTech
10 Oregon
11 Texas Tech
12 Colorado
13 Georgia
14 WVU
15 UCLA
16 Oklahoma
17 Michigan
18 Auburn
19 Wisconsin
20 Georgia Tech
21 Florida
22 Fresno State
23 Northwestern
24 South Carolina
25 Boise St.
26 Florida State
27 Louisville
28 Minnesota
29 UTEP
30 Notre Dame
31 Iowa State
32 Toledo
33 Boston College
34 Virginia
35 Miami (OH)
36 Az. State
37 Iowa
38 Kansas
39 Cal
40 UNC
41 Missouri
42 Texas A&M
43 Clemson
44 UCF
45 Western Michigan
46 Rutgers
47 BYU
48 Oregon State
49 South Florida
50 Colorado State
51 La Tech
52 NC State
53 Stanford
54 Northern Illinois
55 Michigan State
56 Central Michigan
57 Maryland
58 Nebraska
59 Utah
60 Nevada
61 Cincinnati
62 Pitt
63 Bowling Green
64 Southern Miss
65 New Mexico
66 Tulsa
67 Wake Forest
68 Navy
69 Kansas State
70 Marshall
71 Arizona
72 Purdue
73 Memphis
74 Tennessee
75 Baylor
76 U Conn
77 Ball State
78 Indiana
79 Ohio
80 Houston
81 Oklahoma St.
82 Ole Miss
83 Wyoming
84 UAB
85 San Diego State
86 Middle TN State
87 La Lafayette
88 Vanderbilt
89 Akron
90 Arkansas State
91 Arkansas
92 Washington State
93 Troy State
94 ECU
95 Kentucky
96 SMU
97 Illinois
98 Hawaii
99 Eastern Michigan
100 La Monroe
101 Air Force
102 Army
103 Mississippi State
104 UNLV
105 Fla Intl
106 Washington
107 Idaho
108 Syracuse
109 Duke
110 Utah State
111 Tulane
112 North Texas
113 Kent State
114 Rice
115 Fla Atlantic
116 New Mexico State
117 Buffalo
118 San Jose State
119 Temple

Conferences by Average Rank:

Ranking - Conf - Average Team Rank
1 Big 12 (37)
2 Big Ten (39)
3 ACC (43)
4 Pac-10 (48)
5 SEC (49)
6 Big East (52)
7 Notre Dame (57)
8 MWC (66)
9 MAC (75)
10 Conf USA (75)
11 WAC (80)
12 Sun Belt (100)
13 I-A Indep (104)

Div 1-A ranking by Schedule Strength:

Rank - Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Michigan
3 Ohio State
4 Kansas
5 Illinois
6 Northwestern
7 Minnesota
8 Purdue
9 Missouri
10 Penn State
11 Texas A&M
12 Colorado
13 Kansas State
14 Oklahoma St.
15 UNC
16 Texas
17 Michigan State
18 Stanford
19 Washington
20 Nebraska
21 Baylor
22 Iowa
23 Tennessee
24 Georgia Tech
25 Indiana
26 Maryland
27 Arizona
28 Az. State
29 Arkansas
30 Wisconsin
31 Duke
32 USC
33 Washington State
34 South Carolina
35 Florida
36 VaTech
37 Wake Forest
38 Oregon State
39 Iowa State
40 Boston College
41 Miami
42 NC State
43 Clemson
44 Virginia
45 Texas Tech
46 Oregon
47 Alabama
48 Mississippi State
49 South Florida
50 Georgia
51 Kentucky
52 Syracuse
53 UCLA
54 Florida State
55 Cal
56 Auburn
57 Colorado State
58 San Diego State
59 Cincinnati
60 LSU
61 Ole Miss
62 Vanderbilt
63 Ball State
64 Pitt
65 Wyoming
66 BYU
67 New Mexico
68 UNLV
69 WVU
70 Central Michigan
71 Notre Dame
72 Air Force
73 Rice
74 Louisville
75 Utah
76 U Conn
77 Ohio
78 TCU
79 Eastern Michigan
80 New Mexico State
81 Buffalo
82 Northern Illinois
83 Rutgers
84 Bowling Green
85 Kent State
86 Marshall
87 Southern Miss
88 Temple
89 Hawaii
90 SMU
91 Miami (OH)
92 Utah State
93 Memphis
94 Toledo
95 ECU
96 Akron
97 Fresno State
98 Houston
99 Tulane
100 Tulsa
101 UCF
102 Western Michigan
103 La Tech
104 UAB
105 Boise St.
106 Nevada
107 Idaho
108 San Jose State
109 Army
110 UTEP
111 North Texas
112 Middle TN State
113 Fla Atlantic
114 La Lafayette
115 Troy State
116 Fla Intl
117 La Monroe
118 Arkansas State
119 Navy

Share this

While I'm likely going to

While I'm likely going to have to boil my fingers for 15 minutes after typing this, I don't think Penn State should be ranked ahead of Mi... Mia....

That school from the southern tip of Florida.

We're good, but I don't sure we're that good.

I very much like your

I very much like your ranking system. I don't really understand Penn State's rank, though.

Now VT and Louisville are in the similar positions as far as conference standing and BCS berth go. The best we can do is second, now. :( You know, I'll never understand how Louisville can crush Pitt, but blow a several touchdown lead in the 4th and get crushed by USF. We're definitely one of the most uneven teams in NCAA college football.

Stormy, #10 SOS vs. #41 SOS.

Stormy,

#10 SOS vs. #41 SOS. That pretty much says it all now; combined with the B10's better SOC, it gives PSU the nod. PSU lost later in the season than Miami, so Miami has the edge there.

As I said above, Miami has been wildly inconsistent this year, rarely playing to their potential. Sure Miami probably has more talent across the board than PSU, but if PSU plays consistently and Miami doesn't, or rather if PSU executes consistently and Miami doesn't, a great deal of the talent gap evaporates.

Explain why Texas is #1 and

Explain why Texas is #1 and USC is not. (Also explain how Texas Tech is #11 when they have played no one except Texas and were blown out in that game) Texas has only played one quality team (Ohio State). Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Colorado are all WAY down this year. Also Ohio State is the only quality non-conference team that UT will play until the bowl season (and we all know how down the "big" 12 is this year.

USC has beaten Notre Dame (how are they ranked #30 when Oklahoma is 16 and Colorado is 12) won at Oregon and ruined Arkansas for the season (Arkansas is down but 91? Come on!) You can penalize them for "not dominating a team" and having to make second half comebacks against most of the teams they play but when a team is as good as USC usually one half a game is good enough to win.

Quick, what team has played (or will play) "both" National Champions from the last two years? A: Arkansas - USC on Sept 17, Auburn on O15, and LSU on Nov 25. If that wasn't tough enough the Hogs also have played #3 Alabama, #13 Georgia, and #24 South Carolina with the only BEATING being at the hands of USC

Kevin, Its simple. 1) Texas'

Kevin,

Its simple.

1) Texas' SOS is #16, USC's is #32.
2) The Big 12 has won more games per team than the PAC-10, so thats a plus for UT.

Thus TX is ahead of USC. USC has ~98% of the points that UT does, while #3 has only ~92%. Its a big dropoff from 2 to 3. All it would take for USC to jump UT is for Big 12 teams to lose OOC games (not happening), PAC-10 to win OOC games (more likely than the former), Texas's opponents to lose, and/or USC's opponents to win. So far, they've been moving in lockstep.

I wonder why everyone keeps saying the Big 12 is down this year. The numbers don't really support that. The Big 12 has 66 wins total for 12 teams (5.50 WPT). That is 5 hundredths of a point lower than the Big 10's rate, which is 61 wins for 11 teams (5.55). By comparison, the PAC-10 has won 52 games for 10 teams (5.20). That's a significant drop off between the B12 and P10. The Big 12 has the highest average ranking (in my poll), too. 10 out of 12 Big 12 teams are over .500, while only 6 out of 10 PAC-10 teams are over 0.500.

Granted, 3 teams in the PAC-10 have 1 or fewer losses, versus 2 in the B12 (30% vs. 16%), however 3 teams in in the PAC-10 have 2 or fewer wins, while every team in the B12 has 3 or more wins.

A conference with two winless cellar dwellers isn't in a position to call other conferences weak or down. Its hard to say 7-2 and 8-1 are "down" for Colorado and TT, respectively. 2 is marginal (because you could still lose and go to 3) but a 1 loss season (if it ends up that way) is awesome, dashed hopes of BCS titles aside. 10-2 is a fine record, too. Oklahoma at 5-3, yeah that's down.

Notre Dame is #30 because they sucked last year, have lost twice, and lost twice in the midst of a puffball schedule. (Though my poll doesn't measure quality wins or MOV, it seems little coincidence that the only two teams of merit on ND's schedule so far have been the ones to beat them.) ND's schedule strength is #72. That is sub .500. Yeah, the game was great vs. USC, but on the numbers (which is the only thing my poll looks at), that's not much of a quality win for USC.

Arkansas is 2-6 on the year. That's penalizing enough on its own.

If you read back to September for Week 1/Preseason, I explain the methodology in detail, and last week I described it in brief (since it has changed). But MOV is not a part of my poll, just winning (and whenyou win/ losing early is forgiven, losing late is generally not), strength of conference, and strength of schedule. For the most part it seems to agree with the computer and human pollsters, so I think the poll's operating biases are sound.

What I could do, now that I have SOS into the system, is convert SOC to a "conference's average SOS" and work it that way. I know that the B12 has inflated its stats in part by scheduling pastries. If the SOC is average SOS instead of WPT, that may compensate for the creampuffs.

For what its worth, I think

For what its worth, I think USC is a more complete team than TX and have to think they'd be / are going to be favored in the MNC game for the hat trick.

Sounds good, thanks for

Sounds good, thanks for responding.

-kb

[...] knew ye. To

[...] knew ye. To Stormy’s relief, Miami has jumped PSU. At least he won’t have to boil his fingers this week. Miami [...]

If the Big 12 was a stronger

If the Big 12 was a stronger conference than the PAC 10, the please explain why the PAC is the closest conference to having 3 teams in the top 10? Not only does the Big 12 not have 2 teams in the top 10, it only has 2 teams in the top 25! At one point, the Pac 10 had 5 teams in the top 25 compared to the Big 12's 3! Only the SEC is arguably stronger than the PAC. The top 3 teams in the PAC have records of 10-0, 9-1, and 9-1. That includes USC's away game defeat of 6 ranked N.D.

Furthermore, the second best team in the Big 12 only has 8 wins (compared to the Pac who two teams w/ 9 wins)! Their top 3 is 10-0, 8-2, and 7-3. The big 12 is horribly overrated and Texas is going to get murdered by USC in the Championship game. Their season's signature win is against a team with two losses and who will most likely finish with three? It will be just like last year when Big 12 fans kept saying how great Ok. was and how USC hasn't seen receivers like Ok's. Well, you all know what a slaughter that was. The poor guys at Texas, I already feel bad for them.

What kind of hack job

What kind of hack job ranking system is this? Is this website dedicated to the Big 12. Do you seriously have the PAC and the SEC conferences ranked below the Big 12 and the Big 10? HAHHAHHAHAHAH. Funny joke I get it. I love the fact that people say the PAC is weak. Right, if it were weak then it couldn't possibly have the best team in college football for the last three years in it. Not only is USC back-to-back BSC champs but they finished tied for 1st with LSU in 2003. I'm trying to remember the last time the Big 12 put out a championship team?

And it's nice to see the Big 10 with no undefeated teams ranked so high. I'm sure LSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia are garbage teams. All we want to see is the best team in the PAC play the best team in the SEC. That is the game of the year. The BIG conferences are simply a step below.

Andrew- Actually I'm an ACC

Andrew-

Actually I'm an ACC homer (if you'd read the post you'll see that I refer to Virginia Tech as we, being I'm a Hokie), and when I designed the system in the first place (2003) VT was in the Big East. If I were cooking the books the Big East would be expected to benefit the most (if only by legacy) or the ACC.

If you look at the comparisons between schedules (wins per team per schedule), 7 out of the top 10 are from the Big 10. The other 3 are from the Big 12. I don't think it is a coincidence that the B10 and B12 are the highest ranked conferences when you have (a) that level of wins per team and (b) that high a schedule strength.

If you looked at the methodology of the rankings, you'd see that (a) MOV has nothing to do with the rankings, (b) history only goes back one year and by this point in the season has little determining value, and (c) the SOC comes from WPT and the bottom half of the P10 has done far far worse than the bottom halves of the B12 and B10, where most of the determination for the averages is going to be. The SEC has been losing out of conference games left and right, without a very strong SOS to show for it. Thus, they are down (as a conference), and why the B12 and B10 rank higher than the SEC and P10. If you read above to my earlier response about "dissing USC", you'd see that the B12 and B10 have a very strongly significant difference in wins per team than the P10. This of course is another reflection of the fact that the bottom half of the P10 is really really bad and you shouldn't get too much credit for beating up on the hapless.

I'm curious why you think this is a B12 homer poll anyway, since aside from flipping 1-2 from the human polls, my poll happens to agree with the rest of the human pollsters and most of the computer polls out there (a good number of which also have Texas at #1, due to USC's SOS). Is there a vast east coast conspiracy against USC?

Whether or not USC won back to back or 100% championships since 1892 is moot. The facts of the matter now are:

1. USC's SOS is worse than UT's.
2. The PAC-10, top to bottom, has not won as much as the Big 12.

USC's preseason bonus was tops, followed by UT. So there is a slight built-in bias in favor of USC, but the two reasons above are why USC is slightly lower than UT. There is roughly a 2% difference in points between the two and the difference betweem 1 and 3 is 10%. So, just as in real life, its neck and neck between UT and USC and #3 is a distant 3rd.

Stepping away from the poll (which, again, is strictly by the wins/losses), UT has performed at a very high level all year long. Their QB is amazing, he reminds me of Michael Vick in '99. Granted I think that USC-UT will also be like '99, in which UT comes across the only team that can beat them, and will lose in the 4th quarter to a more complete USC team. But my system is specifically to see what the *numbers* say the top teams are, rather than going with subjective assessments.