Catallarchy’s College Football Top 25 - Week 9

For all games up to 10/29, here are the (belated) updated rankings, using a modified method including SOS and decreasing preseason rank effects:

Rank - Team - Week 8
1 Texas (1)
2 USC (2)
3 VaTech (3)

4 Alabama (7)
5 UCLA (5)
6 Wisconsin (6)
7 Miami (10)
8 Penn State (23) ~

9 LSU (8)
10 Ohio State (20)
11 Texas Tech (11)
12 Georgia (4)
13 Oregon (21)
14 Florida State (12) *
15 Colorado (13) *
16 Oklahoma (16)
17 TCU (26) ~
18 WVU (9) *
19 Michigan (27)
20 Auburn (14) *
21 Fresno State (34) ~
22 Georgia Tech (31)

23 Florida (44) ~
24 Boston College (22)
25 Cal (15) *

Dropped Out
27 Northwestern (24)
28 Iowa (25)
30 Louisville (17) *
33 Texas A&M (19)
43 Toledo (18) *

Notes:
~ indicates a jump of more than 10 places after the method change
* indicates teams that won last week but still dropped, due to the method change

Other Catallarchy teams of interest:
36 Notre Dame (41)
45 Miami (OH) (62) ~
58 Western Michigan (68)
86 Kentucky (106) ~
89 Purdue (78)

Commentary & explanation of the method change below, full rankings on page 2, and rankings of conferences & schedules on page 3.

After the comments on last week's experiment with adding in strength of schedule, I decided to go ahead with a modified version of the poll for the last few weeks. This of course is a discontinuity but the changes weren't too dramatic and addressed some of the remaining improbables (Penn State and Florida's rankings), putting things a bit closer to perceived reality.

The new method in a nutshell:

1. Points for winning (increases as the weeks go on)
2. Points for Conference (a conference's wins per team compared to the others)
3. Points for Schedule (the wins per schedule compared to the rest of Div 1-A)
4. Points for Relative Win/Loss (points for being above the average wins and below the average losses)
5. Adjustment for games played (teams ahead of the average games played are discounted, teams behind are enhanced)
6. Preseason Bonus/Penalty (the penalty for being #51-119 last year goes away fully by game 5, the positive bonus is discounted an equal amount every game until at post season no bonus will remain).

Method aside, VT played a near flawless game against BC and made a powerful statement & challenge to Miami- we're ready, you should be too. This weekend should be an awesome game.

UT and USC have identical SOS by my reckoning at this point, with UT getting the nod only for the higher strength of the B12. Its definitely neck and neck, and while I still think VT's going to get Auburned if we win out, it won't be so bad; I can't say this year that #1 and #2 don't deserve their position.

Rank - Team -
1 Texas
2 USC
3 VaTech
4 Alabama
5 UCLA
6 Wisconsin
7 Miami
8 Penn State
9 LSU
10 Ohio State
11 Texas Tech
12 Georgia
13 Oregon
14 Florida State
15 Colorado
16 Oklahoma
17 TCU
18 WVU
19 Michigan
20 Auburn
21 Fresno State
22 Georgia Tech
23 Florida
24 Boston College
25 Cal
26 South Carolina
27 Northwestern
28 Iowa
29 Boise St.
30 Louisville
31 Rutgers
32 Missouri
33 Texas A&M
34 UTEP
35 Colorado State
36 Notre Dame
37 Minnesota
38 Iowa State
39 Stanford
40 Nebraska
41 Central Michigan
42 Michigan State
43 Toledo
44 Pitt
45 Miami (OH)
46 Virginia
47 Tulsa
48 UCF
49 Az. State
50 Western Michigan
51 Clemson
52 Kansas
53 Maryland
54 Wake Forest
55 Memphis
56 UNC
57 BYU
58 Cincinnati
59 La Tech
60 Kansas State
61 U Conn
62 Houston
63 Tennessee
64 Oregon State
65 New Mexico
66 Utah
67 Northern Illinois
68 Southern Miss
69 South Florida
70 NC State
71 Baylor
72 Ohio
73 Indiana
74 Arkansas State
75 Nevada
76 Marshall
77 Wyoming
78 Oklahoma St.
79 Bowling Green
80 Vanderbilt
81 Ole Miss
82 Navy
83 Akron
84 San Diego State
85 Arkansas
86 Kentucky
87 Washington State
88 Hawaii
89 Purdue
90 Arizona
91 La Monroe
92 Illinois
93 Ball State
94 ECU
95 Eastern Michigan
96 UAB
97 Air Force
98 La Lafayette
99 Middle TN State
100 UNLV
101 Mississippi State
102 Troy State
103 Washington
104 SMU
105 Idaho
106 Utah State
107 Tulane
108 Syracuse
109 North Texas
110 Duke
111 Army
112 Fla Intl
113 Kent State
114 Rice
115 Fla Atlantic
116 San Jose State
117 Buffalo
118 New Mexico State
119 Temple

Conferences by Average Rank

Ranking - Conf - Average Team Rank
1 Big 12 (37)
2 Big Ten (39)
3 ACC (43)
4 Pac-10 (48)
5 SEC (49)
6 Big East (52)
7 Notre Dame (57)
8 MWC (66)
9 MAC (75)
10 Conf USA (75)
11 WAC (80)
12 Sun Belt (100)
13 I-A Indep (104)

Div 1-A ranking by Schedule Strength:
Rank - Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Michigan
3 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Minnesota
6 Kansas
7 Northwestern
8 UNC
9 Temple
10 Purdue
11 Tennessee
12 Missouri
13 Washington
14 Arkansas
15 Florida
16 Ball State
17 Oklahoma St.
18 Penn State
19 Stanford
20 Colorado
21 South Carolina
22 San Diego State
23 Rice
24 Kansas State
25 Georgia Tech
26 Maryland
27 South Florida
28 New Mexico State
29 Texas A&M
30 Nebraska
31 Texas
32 Arizona
33 Az. State
34 USC
35 Washington State
36 Duke
37 Wake Forest
38 Syracuse
39 Colorado State
40 Army
41 Michigan State
42 NC State
43 Baylor
44 Indiana
45 Oregon State
46 Clemson
47 Virginia
48 VaTech
49 Mississippi State
50 Wyoming
51 Central Michigan
52 Iowa
53 Miami
54 Alabama
55 Kentucky
56 Cincinnati
57 BYU
58 Boston College
59 Georgia
60 New Mexico
61 UNLV
62 Ohio
63 Wisconsin
64 Pitt
65 Buffalo
66 Hawaii
67 Iowa State
68 Oregon
69 WVU
70 Notre Dame
71 Northern Illinois
72 Auburn
73 Ole Miss
74 Air Force
75 Utah
76 Bowling Green
77 Eastern Michigan
78 Marshall
79 SMU
80 Southern Miss
81 UCLA
82 LSU
83 Vanderbilt
84 Memphis
85 Utah State
86 Texas Tech
87 Cal
88 Florida State
89 Fresno State
90 Louisville
91 TCU
92 Kent State
93 ECU
94 Houston
95 Tulsa
96 Middle TN State
97 North Texas
98 Miami (OH)
99 Tulane
100 La Tech
101 U Conn
102 UCF
103 Boise St.
104 UAB
105 Nevada
106 Fla Atlantic
107 Rutgers
108 Toledo
109 La Lafayette
110 Idaho
111 San Jose State
112 Akron
113 Fla Intl
114 La Monroe
115 Troy State
116 Western Michigan
117 UTEP
118 Navy
119 Arkansas State

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I like the one ESPN

I like the one ESPN prediction: Penn State vs. (our formerly much hated rival) Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. It's the "I Love the 80's" Bowl. ;>

If you haven't done it yet,

If you haven't done it yet, you can submit your weekly rankings to Ken Massey at kmassey@masseyratings.com and see them compared to about 100 other college football rating systems.

Massey's home page is at: www.mratings.com

--Bobcat

Wow, strength of schedule

Wow, strength of schedule absolutely owned Louisville. :lol: Well, what can you do? There's always next season. We at least play Miami next season, and hopefully our record will will be a bit closer to zero losses.

Needless to say, I'm very

Needless to say, I'm very much looking forward to this weekend's Penn State-Wisconsin game. ;>

Ryan, I think it was more of

Ryan,

I think it was more of the discounting of the preseason bonus. Louisville was way up there preseason, and without that there wasn't much left to counteract (rather, the loss of preseason bonus swamped the addition of SOS points). I presume Louisville's SOS score is a bonus vs. a penalty, but I'd have to look at the spreadsheet again.

Yes, the PSU/Wisky matchup will be determinative. The B10 victor will not be going to the Rose Bowl this year though, but that could be fun for VT, we might get a better match if the O-bowl gets a shot at 'em.

Ok, just looking at the

Ok, just looking at the rank-by-SOS I see Louisville is at #90. So yeah, they got the double-whammy.