Catallarchy’s College Football Top 25 - Week 5

For all games up to 10/01, here are the updated rankings:

Rank Team Previous
1 Texas (1)
2 USC (2)
3 VaTech (3)
4 Wisconsin (4)
5 Cal (6)
6 Texas Tech (11)
7 Georgia (7)
8 Auburn (12)
9 Florida State (13)
10 Colorado (16)
11 Nebraska (14)
12 Tennessee (28)
13 WVU (5)
14 Oklahoma St. (8)
15 Louisville (17)
16 UCLA (21)
17 Oklahoma (25)
18 Alabama (19)
19 Iowa (24)
20 Virginia (10)
21 Ohio State (20)
22 Miami (27)
23 Penn State (40)
24 Texas A&M (30)
25 LSU (9)

Dropped Out:
26 Michigan State (15)
29 Minnesota (18)
31 Az. State (22)
32 Utah (23)

Other Catallarchy Teams:
30 Georgia Tech (33)
74 Western Michigan (103)
76 Miami (OH) (66)
79 Kentucky (97)

Commentary & update on midseason change in the poll below, full rankings on page 2, and my subjective reordering of the given Top 25 on page 3.

Oh, so close Arizona State, so close. USC gets closer every week to meeting my 5 criteria, they showed heart this time rallying from behind to win. VT wins a great game on the road at WVU, showing discipline, execution, and heart. VT's definitely #3; the next trap game is Boston College, if only because it comes prior to Miami. VT has owned BC in the all time series and given BC's track record of choking in the big games, I'm not too worried but it could pose a problem. VT should be undefeated to BC and then to Miami, whom VT never has a problem playing tough.

The big change this week is that I've taken the commenters' views to heart and eliminated preaseason negatives to the rankings- only bonuses remain. While this only had the effect of popping Penn State into the Top 25 (which I think is warranted), the major change is in the latter half of the rankings. Doug's Broncos were the greatest beneficiaries, jumping almost 30 spots. Notre Dame is still down in the dumps and this year I think they actually do deserve to be in the Top 25. I think I need a better "Notre Dame Rule" to address this- suggestions are welcome on how to overcome the independent status.

With the WVU loss (and a few others around the Big East), the anomaly of the BE as #1, 2, or even #3 conference in the land is gone. They are now worst amongst BCS conferences in my ratings, as is most likely true. The ACC has moved up to #3, huzzah!

All told, I'm pleased with the results now. At week 5 there are plenty of data to chew on and WVU's loss didn't sink them out of the polls. LSU is dropping because they're getting more in line with the number of games played throughout division 1-A, which is the only real remaining anomaly in the poll, but Hurricane effects can't be predicted... :sweat:

Rank Team
1 Texas
2 USC
3 VaTech
4 Wisconsin
5 Cal
6 Texas Tech
7 Georgia
8 Auburn
9 Florida State
10 Colorado
11 Nebraska
12 Tennessee
13 WVU
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Louisville
16 UCLA
17 Oklahoma
18 Alabama
19 Iowa
20 Virginia
21 Ohio State
22 Miami
23 Penn State
24 Texas A&M
25 LSU
26 Michigan State
27 U Conn
28 Michigan
29 Minnesota
30 Georgia Tech
31 Az. State
32 Utah
33 Purdue
34 Indiana
35 Iowa State
36 Northwestern
37 Boston College
38 Baylor
39 Kansas
40 Kansas State
41 Oregon
42 Florida
43 Vanderbilt
44 Toledo
45 Washington State
46 Notre Dame
47 Rutgers
48 Wyoming
49 Clemson
50 TCU
51 UNC
52 Navy
53 Maryland
54 Oregon State
55 Missouri
56 Cincinnati
57 South Florida
58 South Carolina
59 Illinois
60 UAB
61 New Mexico
62 Boise St.
63 UTEP
64 Southern Miss
65 Tulane
66 Colorado State
67 Wake Forest
68 NC State
69 Syracuse
70 Stanford
71 Mississippi State
72 Arkansas
73 Pitt
74 Western Michigan
75 Eastern Michigan
76 Miami (OH)
77 Arizona
78 San Diego State
79 Kentucky
80 Bowling Green
81 Fresno State
82 Ole Miss
83 UCF
84 Houston
85 Memphis
86 Air Force
87 Ohio
88 Akron
89 Washington
90 Marshall
91 Duke
92 BYU
93 Idaho
94 Tulsa
95 Nevada
96 Central Michigan
97 Northern Illinois
98 UNLV
99 North Texas
100 Army
101 La Tech
102 Utah State
103 La Monroe
104 ECU
105 Temple
106 Arkansas State
107 SMU
108 Kent State
109 Hawaii
110 Fla Intl
111 Middle TN State
112 La Lafayette
113 San Jose State
114 Rice
115 Troy State
116 Ball State
117 Buffalo
118 New Mexico State
119 Fla Atlantic

Assuming my poll has it right with who the Top 25 should be but not exactly where, here’s my opinion:

Rank Team Computer
1 Texas (1)
2 USC (2)
3 VaTech (3)
4 Wisconsin (4)
5 Cal (5)
6 Georgia (7)
7 Auburn (8)
8 Florida State (9)
9 Colorado (10)
10 Nebraska (11)
11 Tennessee (12)
12 Miami (22)
13 Alabama (18)
14 Texas Tech (6)
15 WVU (13)
16 Oklahoma St. (14)
17 Louisville (15)
18 UCLA (16)
19 Iowa (19)
20 Virginia (20)
21 Ohio State (21)
22 Penn State (23)
23 Texas A&M (24)
24 LSU (25)
25 Oklahoma (17)

And Conference Ranks by average team rank:

Rank Conf Average Team Rank
1 Big 12 (24)
2 Big Ten (28)
3 ACC (42)
4 Pac-10 (43)
5 SEC (43)
6 Big East (44)
7 MWC (68)
8 I-A Indep (81)
9 Conf USA (84)
10 MAC (88)
11 WAC (97)
12 Sun Belt (109)

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Spoonie- You've been

Spoonie-

You've been watching them more closely than I have- what are the big problems with UVA this year? WRs, QB development, defensive scheme, ?

Whoo, Louisville jumped a

Whoo, Louisville jumped a spot. I like your system the best. :grin:

Mr. Doss, I've been a UVA

Mr. Doss, I've been a UVA fan long enough to know when we suck and when we really suck. This year is not good. :(

Thank you for the

Thank you for the underliney-love. :grin:

Okay, I give you underlining

Okay, I give you underlining instead. Italics is hard to read. :)

Jody- By sheer coincidence

Jody-

By sheer coincidence I'm sure, when I made a "Notre Dame Conference" of 12 teams (ND + all their opponents), the WPT was within 0.02 of the Div 1-A average, which happens to be what I had started to use as a proxy for ND's conference. Wild, wacky stuff. So ND this year and so far is essentially playing a representative sample of Division 1-A football, which makes it the worst of the 6 BCS conferences but better than the 6 non-BCS conferences. Wow.

Irony - when I split ND out, remove their negative preseason modifier and give them their own conference based on their schedule and remove the influence of the three outcaste independents, they drop 3 spots to #49. :lol:

Jody- Hey not bad. I'll look

Jody-

Hey not bad. I'll look into how difficult that would be; I imagine it would require just setting it up at the beginning and then running a separate query for the "Notre Dame Conference". Hmmm... Thanks!

Jonathan-

I use the previous season's results (with modifications) to give a rational basis for seeding without having to go to some sort of subjective evaluation of each teams coming in. Though I can see having another filter for how many starters are returning as a discount of their past performance. Generally speaking past performance does tell you a lot about what the team is likely to do.

The more important part is that the preseason bonuses are not as big compared to the points you can earn in the season. However I forgot about that balancing fact when I lowered the points awarded per win, so this time around its been overdetermined by preseason standing, which is a bit unfortunate, though not a killer as the Top 25 anyway seems to match most subjective opinions about who is there (especially in the Top 5 and to a lesser extent the Top 10). Next year I'm going to reduce the preseason bonus, though not so much that the wild variance comes back for losing a game (where in '03 I had teams in the Top 5 bounced out for losing late in the season, which is unduly harsh). It could be that my weighting of the importance of games toward the end may be revisited, but I think it is important to have the "last year's data" in the system as the seed to keep things stable and closer to reality in the first 4-5 weeks.

re: USC - yeah, these closer wins are much better than the blowout against Arkansas. Being down that much at halftime is a gut check. Looks like their D is still suspect, though, but heart/guts will overcome a number of sins.

re: VT running game - granted that Imoh and Humes are the weakest pair since Ox & Stith (or whatnot), our opponents have been playing cheap against us and cheating against the run, because nobody seems to believe the 'hype' (which is in fact the reality) that our WRs/TEs are good and our QB is indeed that good in the air. WVU didn't believe, and Vick had a field day. They haven't been having as much success because Frank is still thinking "run first" despite opposing D's stacking against the run and/or trying to blitz all the time, so they're not effective at first, and then later in the game we've gone to the pass and so they don't get as many touches.

VT is a case where the passing game is going to open up the run, and not vice versa. Our O-line is good enough for pass blocking but not a "pound them down" O-line of 95-96 or 99, where we can just hit people over and over up the gut and wear them down through sheer physicality. We started running on WVU only after we shredded them down after down in the air. Only then did they stop cheating against the run, and only then did Humes and Imoh start having long success. Long story short- I don't think our running game is as bad as people say (though not as good as it should be and, worrisomely, may need to be if, inshallah, we face USC at the end of the year).

I think people are

I think people are underestimating how much USC will benefit from these close games down the road. The easiest way for a talented team to lose in a big game at the end of the season is to play a cupcake schedule and never get tested. USC still might be playing a cupcake schedule depending on who you ask, but they've been tested. They've had that feeling in the pits of their stomachs upon looking at a scoreboard which shows a seemingly insurmountable deficit. They've had to "turn up the wick". It'll pay off down the road in a big way.

VT looks damn good, but unless we get our running game humming, it'll cost us the national championship in the end. Clearly Humes and Imoh are the weakest combo we've had since 1998. If Beamer continues to keep Brandon Ore on the bench out of loyalty to the seniors, the decision will come back to haunt us. Imoh hasn't looked 100% since the middle of last season. Ore should get some carries against Marshall, and he might not give them back.

Re: the formula - I don't like using prior season's accomplishments for this year's rankings. IMO, methodology with a memory of previous seasons is inherently flawed. It should be as much about this season as possible.

Proposed Notre Dame

Proposed Notre Dame conference rule: Their conference is the set of teams they play in a given year. (Probably extend this to the handful of other independents).

A 29-spot jump for beating

A 29-spot jump for beating Buffalo? Cool. :cool:

Spoonie- While I'm an

Spoonie-

While I'm an admitted and proud VT homer, I wouldn't go so far as to cook the books against UVA. ;) I'm not exactly cooking them *for* UVA either-

UVA's positives thus far: 3 wins, ACC membership, Top 50 finish last year (good preseason bonus), and fewer losses than average and more wins than average. One more loss of course will likely shift both of those last two considerations into the negative (or at least diminish the positive), but for now its the past and a rising conference tide that's keeping UVA in business.

Granted, struggling against the 'cuse and then losing to the hapless terps in a shootout does not bode well for the team. But I think *if* UVA could get their act together they currently possess a relatively good team. Groh is a net negative to that probability (Groh is worth ~7 pts to the opposing team, IMO).

why UVA is still in the top

why UVA is still in the top 25 really confuses me. :dunce:

You people and your

You people and your demands!

I'll give you some italics. :)

Hey, can we get some

Hey, can we get some boldface for Penn State?

Hey, can we get some

Hey, can we get some boldface for Penn State?

Have I mentioned how much I

Have I mentioned how much I hate Purdue?

If there's one thing I hate more about Purdue losing, it's Purdue losing to Notre Dame. Horrible. All the beer I drank Saturday night couldn't begin to dull that pain.

Here is my top 25 curently

Here is my top 25 curently 10:30 et. oct. 15 2005
I also have a scale of 1-10 10 being the best of how much I like the teams.

1. Virginia Tech 10
2. Texas 7
3. Southern California 5
4. Florida State 5
5. Alabama 8
6. Miami FL. 4
7. Ohio State 6
8. LSU 4
9. Georgia 4
10. Notre Dame 1
11. Boston College 4
12. Texas Tech 9
13. UCLA 6
14. Penn State 9
15. Florida 3
16. Nebraska 7
17. Oregon 8
18. Wisconson 2
19. Michigan 1
20. Georgia Tech 2
21. Michigan State 6
22. West Virginia 1
23. Virginia 1
24. Auburn 6
25. Arizona State 7