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Odds on the Future
Submitted by Scott Scheule on Sat, 2005-08-27 13:34.
Some rogue economist drew my attention to a fascinating website, Longbets.
The raison d'être of the site is "to improve long-term thinking" by letting people place wagers on the world of tomorrow. The betting topics range from fascinating:
By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.
to the exceptionally long-term:
The universe will eventually stop expanding.
The optimistic:
At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.
The stupid:
As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the US.
And the patently obvious:
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site.
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Let's improve the short-term
Let's improve the short-term thinking first. According to the FAQ, bettors don't get the payout. It goes to charity, and the terms are long enough that the payout may or may not happen in the bettors' lifetimes. Given that there's little incentive to be right, the primary incentive is instead to buy placement for promoting contentious positions -- Unicef might enjoy a check in 2040, but participants can enjoy selling books and blog ads today.
Excuse me. His wife.
Excuse me. His wife.
From what I've seen on
From what I've seen on google images, Patri likes to go there and do naked acrobatics with his girlfriend.
Bah. Is anyone from this
Bah. Is anyone from this blog going to burningman? Far more direct and interesting.
Don't be stupid, stupid.
Don't be stupid, stupid.
A nitpick- That a Democrat
A nitpick-
That a Democrat would the 2004 election was not a stupid bet when the bet was made (Aug 2003) nor up until the first week of November 2004. The odds were always close to 50/50.
"The US mens soccer team would win a world cup before the BoSox won the Series" -> THAT was a stupid bet.