My Tradesports Portfolio

As I've mentioned earlier, I recently started betting on current events on Tradesports, which is the closest thing we have right now to an Idea Futures market. In case anyone is curious (and to brag), here is my current portfolio. The only contract I've purchased which is not shown was that the Terrorism Alert Status would be Yellow at the end of August, which it was.

Contract Position Bought Avg. Current Price Current Profit/Loss
OSAMA.CAPTURE.SEP04 -20 12.0 6.5 11.00
OSAMA.CAPTURE.OCT04 -15 15.1 13.3 2.77
OSAMA.CAPTURE.DEC04 -76 23.6 21.0 19.87
HOUSE.GOP.2004 +10 88.6 91.0 2.40
SENATE.GOP.2004 +52 79.4 82.9 18.08
BUSH.ELECTORAL+200 +50 88.8 87.0 -9.16
BUSH.ELECTORAL+250 +100 68.5 71.0 25.00
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 +85 54.1 61.0 58.82

A negative position means I'm selling (betting it won't happen), positive means I'm buying (betting it will happen). Contracts that happen become worth 100, contracts that don't become worth 0. So you want to buy contracts that end up worth 100, and sell contracts that end up worth 0. You can calculate odds based on this, ie 50 is 1:1, 60 is 3:2, 66 is 2:1, 75 is 3:1, etc. So, for example, my position of +85 on Bush becoming president, bought at an average price of 54.1, means that if Bush is elected, I'll make $390.32, and if not I'll lose $459.68.

Of these 8 contracts, 7 have moved towards the direction I bet. Given that I tend to be offering odds (ie selling longshots, buying sure things), this is more auspicious than if the same percentage of my contracts concluded profitably. My least odds-heavy position is on Bush winning the election, currently at 61 (3:2). Most are in the 70-90 range. What this means is that most of the times my opinion differs from the market, I believe they are overestimating the chances of a longshot. Hopefully I am selling variance, which (as casinos and bookies know) is a profitable business.

If I am "beating the market", I suspect the opportunity won't last, as more "smart money" finds this opportunity and exploits it. Perhaps that means you?

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What does the +200 and +250

What does the +200 and +250 on the Bush contracts mean?

Oh, does it mean that he'll

Oh, does it mean that he'll get more than that many electoral votes?

Yep, exactly.

Yep, exactly.

What do the positions mean?

What do the positions mean? Are they yours just as tally marks, or are they part of the tradesports/trading system and indicate what you want to buy, etc, to other traders?

The position is my position.

The position is my position. These are contracts which I have successfully purchased/sold, not offers that are sitting out there.

Oh, so being +100 on the

Oh, so being +100 on the Bush Electoral +250 means you're holding 100 contracts on that (or have bought that many) while the negative numbers represent how many of the others you have sold, yes?

Yes, that's correct.

Yes, that's correct. Contracts are $10 each, so every point is ten cents. So for every contract you hold at price X, you make $0.10 * (100 - price).