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What Is The Purpose Of Creation Science?

I've been having a bit of an ID/Evolution tussle with Bob Murphy here and here, and a question just occurred to me: What exactly is it the purpose of Intelligent Design/Creation Science?

Yes, yes, the obvious explanation is that theists want God taught in the science classrooms. But doesn't this violate a central tenet of theism? Namely, don't all theists have to account for the hiddenness of God? That is, if God exists, why doesn't God make its own existence obvious, and eliminate all of the time wasted (and sins committed) as a result of reasonable doubt?

Most versions of theism that I have encountered give a similar answer to this question: the hiddenness of God is a test of faith, for which believers will be rewarded. Open, obvious evidence for God's existence would remove a significant element of free will - we would not be believing because we choose to believe, but because we must believe.

But if that's the case, then why the urge to prove, scientifically, that God is in the gaps? Why are IDers/Creationists looking for, not just any evidence, but scientific evidence, in the form of irreducible complexity as an argument for the existence of a designer?

If God really did exist, why would God provide complex, statistical, scientific evidence for its own existence only in the micro-world of biochemical processes, and not instead, say, host his own public access television show called Jesus and Pals? Are microbiologists more deserving than the rest of us to bask in the knowledge and glory of the Divine? Or does God want us all to give up our day jobs and become microbiologists?


The Infant IQ Gap

Micha's post below quotes a description of Roland Fryer's purported debunking of the black-white IQ gap:

Are blacks genetically predisposed to be less intelligent than whites? With a collaborator from the University of Chicago, Mr Fryer debunked this idea. Granted, blacks score worse than whites on intelligence tests. But Mr Fryer looked at data from new tests on very young children. At eight months to a year, he found almost no racial gap, and that gap disappeared entirely when he added controls for such things as low birth weight.

The paper, co-authored with Steven Levitt, is here (PDF).

While I think it would be great if environmental adjustments could correct the IQ gap, and I hope Dr. Fryer is successful in finding a solution, this is by no means a debunking of the genetic hypothesis.

For one, it's not at all clear that infant testing measures the same underlying factor as adult IQ tests. The test used is the Bayley Scale of Infant Development, which according to the paper has a correlation of 0.3 with IQ at age 5, meaning that it explains only 9% of the variation in IQ at the age of 5, and the correlation with adult IQ is presumably somewhat weaker. It's likely that BSID is more a measure of normal development than of genetic potential for intelligence. Note the reference to low birth weight babies having lower BSID scores, and also this study, which found that BSID weakly predicted IQ in children exposed to an environmental toxin but not at all in the matched controls.

Or it could be the case that black and white children simply develop along different trajectories. This is consistent with adoption studies, which have found that the IQ gap between black and white children adopted into white families starts small and grows over time. Granted, this is not the only possible explanation (e.g., it could be due to peer group effects).

Also worth noting: At eight months to a year, there is no sexual gap in facial hair growth.


If Mike Huben Didn't Exist, Would Libertarians Have to Invent Him?

In response to the very sensible observation that the problem with criminal forensics is that it is embedded within a throughly monopolistic system, Bob Murphy writes

I loved the article, but I think Koppl doesn't push it far enough when he says the problem is monopoly, and therefore we need the government to require multiple tests, etc. That's like saying the problem with oil prices is OPEC, and that's why we need to ask Saudi Arabia to pump more.

Case in point: Koppl discusses a guy who was wrongly convicted of rape and held for four years. His compensation? $118,000. If those are the penalties the government faces for mistakes, no wonder they are so sloppy. In a voluntary system where people could patronize different legal frameworks (and yes we can argue about how/whether that would work), I think the fines might be such that the agencies that survived the competition fixed the leaky roofs over their crime labs.

In response, Mike Huben writes,

Even if libertarian fantasy competing privatized crime labs existed and were 100% correct, why would you think that would make a significant difference?

You would have to presume that conviction is an accurate process: but there's no good measure of it, and lots of reasons why we know it is frequently inaccurate.

But it makes a nice story for libertarians to bash government with, even if it is stupid.

*facepalm*


Black America, The Cycle of Poverty, and Time Preference

In a surprisingly well-balanced look at both conservative and liberal academic scholarship on contemporary black America, The Economist tells the remarkable story of Roland Fryer:

When Roland Fryer was about 15, a friend asked him what he would be doing when he was 30. He said he would probably be dead. It was a reasonable prediction. At the time, he was hanging out with a gang and selling drugs on the side. Young black men in that line of work seldom live long. But Mr Fryer survived. At 30, he won tenure as an economics professor at Harvard. That was four months ago.

Mr Fryer's parents split up when he was very young. His father was a maths teacher who went off the rails: young Roland once had to borrow money to bail him out of jail. His great-aunt and great-uncle ran a crack business: young Roland would watch them cook cocaine powder into rocks of crack in a frying pan in the kitchen. Several of his relatives went to prison. But Mr Fryer backed away from a life of crime and won a sports scholarship to the University of Texas. He found he enjoyed studying, and was rather good at it. By the time he was 25, the president of Harvard was hectoring him to join the faculty.

Fryer's academic focus seems to be on IQ and education:

He is obsessed with education, which he calls “the civil-rights battleground of the 21st century”. Why do blacks lag behind whites in school? Mr Fryer is prepared to test even the most taboo proposition. Are blacks genetically predisposed to be less intelligent than whites? With a collaborator from the University of Chicago, Mr Fryer debunked this idea. Granted, blacks score worse than whites on intelligence tests. But Mr Fryer looked at data from new tests on very young children. At eight months to a year, he found almost no racial gap, and that gap disappeared entirely when he added controls for such things as low birth weight.

If the gap is absent in babies, this suggests it is caused by environmental factors, which can presumably be fixed. But first they must be identified. Do black children need better nutrition? More stimulation in the home? Better schools? Probably all these things matter, but how much? “I don't know,” says Mr Fryer. It is a phrase that, to his credit, he uses often.

His most striking contribution to the debate so far has been to show that black students who study hard are accused of “acting white” and are ostracised by their peers. Teachers have known this for years, at least anecdotally. Mr Fryer found a way to measure it. He looked at a large sample of public-school children who were asked to name their friends. To correct for kids exaggerating their own popularity, he counted a friendship as real only if both parties named each other. He found that for white pupils, the higher their grades, the more popular they were. But blacks with good grades had fewer black friends than their mediocre peers. In other words, studiousness is stigmatised among black schoolchildren. It would be hard to imagine a more crippling cultural norm.

Mr Fryer has some novel ideas about fixing this state of affairs. New York's school system is letting him test a couple of them on its children. One is to give pupils cash incentives. If a nine-year-old completes an exam, he gets $5. For getting the answers right, he gets more money, up to about $250 a year. The notion of bribing children to study makes many parents queasy. Mr Fryer's response is: let's see if it works and drop it if it doesn't.

Another idea, being tested on a different group of children, is to hand out free mobile telephones. The phones do not work during school hours, and children can recharge them with call-minutes only by studying. (The phone companies were happy to help with this.) The phones give the children an incentive to study, and Mr Fryer a means to communicate with them. He talks of “re-branding” academic achievement to make it cool. He knows it will not be easy. He recalls hearing drug-pushers in the 1980s joking “Just say no!” as they handed over the goods, mocking Nancy Reagan's anti-drug slogan.

What's puzzling is how such a self-defeating cultural norm came to be in the first place. In a response to Ezra Klein on the connection between education and health outcomes, Will Wilkinson points to time preferences:

The causes of differences in dispositions to act now to gain distant future rewards are unknown to me. I guess it has a great deal to do with an early sense of the stability or volatility of one’s practical environment. If you come to feel that involved plans tend to be dashed and that resisting gratification leaves you with less than you could have had, you’ll learn not to form involved plans or defer desire. I think having consistently enough money is a major factor in developing the sense that long-term projects can be successfully carried through. But having enough is itself largely a function of being able to carry through long-term plans. Poverty can be so pernicious precisely because it carries with it the conditions for its own reinforcement.

Economist article via Charno at ASC


Winning The Long Peace

The most important long-term action to prevent terrorism is to close as many as possible of the open political wounds that allow mass murderers to think of themselves as fighting for a cause, transforming largely ineffective psychopaths into potentially very effective terrorists.

Serious long term work on finding peaceful, equitable solutions to issues like Israel, or the bloody borders of Islam, or Maoist insurgency in places like Nepal should be thought of as parallel to Cold War efforts to restrict Soviet bloc power: a long haul project to be passed forwards through generations. The policy of containment was never designed to be an overnight success.

This long-term peace building process is based on the understanding that a political situation which produces effective terrorists anywhere is a problem everywhere. A clear example of this is LTTE ("Tamil Tigers") who are held responsible for the invention of suicide bombing and are currently experimenting with using light planes as bombers. It is clear that terrorist R&D is conducted globally, not locally, because they are united by technique and not by ideology. But one cannot hope to stamp out a technique of war - only to remove the perception of just cause and turn these people back into ordinary criminals.

Any individual "cause" could eventually give rise to the leadership, will and technical capability to hit America, particularly if supported by hidden nation state backers. It took 60 years for Arab anger about Israel to contribute to the US taking a serious blow, but it did eventually happen.

"The Long Peace" is an alternative model to the "Long War." The "Long War" envisages defeating terrorism by depleting terrorist resources until they no longer function effectively. However, given the relatively low start-up costs of a new terrorist group this seems likely to be a fruitless long-term strategy. The "Long Peace" suggests an alternate model: focus on converting the passive support base of terrorists by multi-decade programs to settle the conflicts which give rise to terrorism, coupled with active outreach on issues like global poverty, AIDS and the environment to get the US the broad popular support that it will take to finally win the war on terror.

Vinay Gupta, Winning The Long Peace. He has some great, concrete proposals for how the US can constructively contribute to world security:

A first concrete instance: what if American embassies the world over issued extremely hard identity credentials to people - US citizens or otherwise?

This is a function typically strongly associated with conventional nation states, but in this age of ICT, there are no technical problems in issuing a biometric identity card to any person who asks for one...Obviously such an identity credential has many positive security implications.

Outsourcing certain kinds of regulations and research is the legislative equivalent of pegging a currency to the dollar. For example, a developing world country could state that their banned chemical list will be the same as the US list of 20 years ago except in the case of new urgent discoveries.

Winning with good products instead of bombs - now that's the American way! Unlikely to ever happen, but I bet it would be far more effective. As Vinay says:

There is no human intelligence network like a population which genuinely supports America and has a vested interest in America's continued prosperity and survival.


Ronald Reagan's Farewell Address

I was 12 when Reagan left office, old enough to remember the excitement of having met him the previous year, but not yet interested enough in politics to understand why he was special. Via TSI board member Joe Lonsdale's blog post, I just came across the text of his farewell address, and finally got, on an emotional level, what an unusual friend to liberty Reagan was.

For example, this passage is something we could use to remember in these dark days for America's reputation:

It was back in the early '80s, at the height of the boat people. And the sailor was hard at work on the carrier Midway, which was patrolling the South China Sea. The sailor, like most American servicemen, was young, smart, and fiercely observant. The crew spied on the horizon a leaky little boat. And crammed inside were refugees from Indochina hoping to get to America. The Midway sent a small launch to bring them to the ship and safety. As the refugees made their way through the choppy seas, one spied the sailor on deck and stood up and called out to him. He yelled, "Hello, American sailor. Hello, freedom man."

A small moment with a big meaning, a moment the sailor, who wrote it in a letter, couldn't get out of his mind. And when I saw it, neither could I. Because that's what it was to be an American in the 1980s. We stood, again, for freedom. I know we always have, but in the past few years the world again, and in a way, we ourselves rediscovered it.

On convincing by example:

Once you begin a great movement, there's no telling where it will end. We meant to change a nation, and instead, we changed a world.

Countries across the globe are turning to free markets and free speech and turning away from ideologies of the past. For them, the great rediscovery of the 1980s has been that, lo and behold, the moral way of government is the practical way of government: Democracy, the profoundly good, is also the profoundly productive.

A prediction that was vindicated by history:

Nothing is less free than pure communism, and yet we have, the past few years, forged a satisfying new closeness with the Soviet Union. I've been asked if this isn't a gamble, and my answer is no because we're basing our actions not on words but deeds. The detente of the 1970s was based not on actions but promises. They'd promise to treat their own people and the people of the world better. But the gulag was still the gulag, and the state was still expansionist, and they still waged proxy wars in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Well, this time, so far, it's different. President Gorbachev has brought about some internal democratic reforms and begun the withdrawal from Afghanistan. He has also freed prisoners whose names I've given him every time we've met.
...
My view is that President Gorbachev is different from previous Soviet leaders. I think he knows some of the things wrong with his society and is trying to fix them.

Good advice for people, as well as nations:

We'll continue to work to make sure that the Soviet Union that eventually emerges from this process is a less threatening one. What it all boils down to is this. I want the new closeness to continue. And it will, as long as we make it clear that we will continue to act in a certain way as long as they continue to act in a helpful manner. If and when they don't, at first pull your punches. If they persist, pull the plug. It's still trust but verify. It's still play, but cut the cards. It's still watch closely. And don't be afraid to see what you see.

On America's frontier origins and Seasteading:

The past few days when I've been at that window upstairs, I've thought a bit of the "shining city upon a hill." The phrase comes from John Winthrop, who wrote it to describe the America he imagined. What he imagined was important because he was an early Pilgrim, an early freedom man. He journeyed here on what today we'd call a little wooden boat; and like the other Pilgrims, he was looking for a home that would be free.

I've spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don't know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace, a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity, and if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it and see it still.

Thanks for the vision Ron. America's lost its way a bit, but we're working to build your shining city on the high seas.

UPDATE: You can watch or listen to the whole thing here.


Lunchbomb

Friendly reminder: today is the big fundraising day for Amit Singh. The best way you can help him win the election is to send a few bucks his way.


The world of tax-free hedge funds

AKA "Ivy League Universities"

Receipts = $2 billion of operating revenue + $7.3 billion of investment income + $0.6 billion of gifts to the endowment = ~$10 billion.

Operating costs = ~$3 billion.

Profit = $10 billion – $3 billion = ~$7 billion.

This explains why Harvard’s net assets increased about $7 billion in 2007, from about $35 billion to about $42 billion.

Viewed purely in terms of economics, Harvard is really a $40 billion tax-free hedge fund with a very large marketing and PR arm called Harvard University that has the job of raising the investment capital and protecting the fund’s preferential tax treatment.

The trick is that this hedge fund can’t remit earnings to investors, and has to keep them in the company’s account, renaming these retained earnings as an “endowment”. So how do the insiders extract value from this business? One way is by giving themselves cushy jobs that pay a ton of dough.

[Source: Jim Manzi]

To be fair, the fact that it can't remit earnings to investors, but must keep them in its endowment and use them to further its mission is very significant from a social standpoint. Sure, it's making tax-free profits, but those are tax-free profits that can only be spent on education and research. Which is somewhat different from private profits that are spent on consumption, or corporate profits that are partly returned to investors for consumption.

Still, I definitely don't buy the idea that money Harvard spends is better for society than corporate profits which are reinvested. I mean, sure, Harvard may invest in things which are not profitable but yet still socially beneficial (perhaps because benefits are widely dispersed). But they also invest in things which are not profitable because they have less social benefit than their cost.

The freedom to not try to make a profit lets you do things that accomplish enormous dispersed good, or are wasteful. I see no reason to think that the average result gives the world more utility than investment in private corporations. I'd guess less, actually. So the favorable tax treatment is actually encouraging malinvestment.


The Greentech Business Revolution

Nice interview with Vinod Khosla:

Q: Can I close it up with one question about the valley in general? What is the future of Silicon Valley and its competitive state versus the rest of the world?

A: I think the most powerful social force we have when it comes to solving our problems and multiplying our resources is the entrepreneurs and technologists and scientists. And the culture of Silicon Valley. It is the solution and may be the only solution. Policy can help. But policy doesn't work without technology innovation.

Look, cement's a classic example. We're trying to do cement that would be cheap enough to give away for free if carbon had a price. That could change the world's carbon picture, with one technology. If solar thermal is cheaper than coal, which is possible over the next five to 10 years, then coal would be in a very different place. Those ideas come from technologists and scientists and serious entrepreneurs. And that's why I'm actually hopeful that we can change the picture.


Leon Kass Hates Ice Cream

Worst of all from this point of view are those more uncivilized forms of eating, like licking an ice cream cone--a catlike activity that has been made acceptable in informal America but that still offends those who know eating in public is offensive. ... Eating on the street--even when undertaken, say, because one is between appointments and has no other time to eat--displays [a] lack of self-control: It beckons enslavement to the belly. ... Lacking utensils for cutting and lifting to mouth, he will often be seen using his teeth for tearing off chewable portions, just like any animal. ... This doglike feeding, if one must engage in it, ought to be kept from public view, where, even if we feel no shame, others are compelled to witness our shameful behavior.

- Kass, quoted by Steven Pinker, via Hit & Run


Amit Singh for Congress

My friend Amit Singh is running for Congress in Virginia's 8th District. In the past, he's been a commenter on this blog and his DC condo served as Hotel Catallarchy for Catallarchicon I back in 2005. I can't go into any more details about what took place on those premises because he's running for Congress.

He's running as a Republican though with a definite libertarian streak. You can read more about his positions at his website. On May 15th, he's having a fund raiser which is described here. There's also a video of Amit and Ron Paul deciding on what to eat for lunch. Paul gives an Oscar-worthy performance if Oscars were given for Youtube videos.

I'll be conducting an interview with Amit in the very near future. In the meantime, those of you in the DC/Northern Virginia area should check out his website.


Ladrones estatales

Mexico's federal consumer protection agency recently determined that 10% of the country's gas stations cheat their customers, either through watering down gasoline or through modifying the software that runs the machines to make the number appear higher than the amount that leaves the pump.

It may be relevant to point out that PEMEX, Mexico's state-run petroleum company, is the only supplier for all of the country's commercial stations.

Via Vivir México


Thugs

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon just made a speech I watched on CNN and said that pretty much every first world country has pledged aid to Myanmar, but the Myanmar government is resisting aid workers from entering the country. He pleaded with the Myanmar authorities to cooperate. Reporters asked Ban about sanctions which he brushed aside to focus on humanitarian efforts for the present time.


Seek And Ye Shall Find

In case any of you are still harboring any lingering suspicions that there might be anything at all that a Republican can say without being accused of racism:

The “hard-working Americans, white Americans” is a classic Wallace/Helms/Buchanan equation of whiteness with hard work and honesty. The opposite is either effete white intellectuals who don’t work, or lazy blacks who also don’t work. In fact, the Reagan coalition GOP even dropped the word “white,” knowing that “hard-working” and “law-abiding” already implied, in their minds, white people.

Emphasis mine. That's right. If you use terms like "hard-working" or "law-abiding," you're pandering to racists, and probably a racist yourself. This supports my hypothesis that a race card shark can "find" racism anywhere he wants.

Via Alas.


Sad Fish